Will Bitcoin Drop Below $50,000 in 2026? Prediction Markets Reveal Investor Sentiment After Trump Tariff Shockwave

Trump's 15% tariff policy triggers $465M crypto liquidations. Prediction markets show 61% probability of Bitcoin falling below $50K. Deep analysis of BTC price trends, market sentiment, and MEXC trading strategies.

 

 

Polymarket data shows 72% probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026

 

Trump's 15% import tariff announcement sparked $465 million in crypto liquidations within 24 hours

 

Bitcoin price rebounds after briefly dropping below $65,000 support level, still down 48% from all-time high

 

Majority of Kalshi traders bet on Bitcoin breaking below the $50,000 threshold

 

Retail sentiment remains bearish as analysts predict possible drop to $48,000-$50,000 range in coming weeks

 

 

Following the Trump administration's latest tariff policy announcement, cryptocurrency markets experienced severe turbulence. According to Polymarket, a leading global prediction market platform, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026 surged by 14% over the past 24 hours, reaching a high probability level of 72%. This data reflects investors' deep concerns about the current macroeconomic environment.

 

More notably, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $50,000 on Polymarket also increased by 9%, currently standing at 61%. This means over sixty percent of market participants believe Bitcoin will face a more significant correction. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, another prominent prediction platform, most investors are similarly bearish on Bitcoin, widely expecting its price to break below the crucial $50,000 psychological threshold in 2026.

 

Real-time data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin currently hovering around $65,040, down 4.2% from 24 hours ago. Notably, this price level represents a staggering 48% decline from the historical peak of $126,000 reached in October last year, with year-to-date losses approaching 26%.

 

 

On February 23rd, President Trump announced a 15% tariff on all imported goods, a sudden policy shift that immediately triggered chain reactions across global financial markets. The cryptocurrency market, as a high-risk asset class, bore the brunt of the impact, with Bitcoin price quickly breaking below the critical $65,000 support level following the announcement.

 

According to liquidation data from Coinglass, this price volatility resulted in a massive $465 million in cryptocurrency liquidations within 24 hours. Long positions dominated overwhelmingly, with liquidations exceeding $434 million. This means a large number of bullish investors suffered devastating losses in this decline, being forcibly liquidated and exiting their positions.

 

Trump's tariff policy is based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows tariffs to remain in place for five months without congressional approval. The use of this legal provision not only bypasses the Supreme Court's rejection of his global tariff plan last Friday but also brings new uncertainty to countries like the UK and Australia that had previously reached 10% tariff agreements with the United States.

 

 

Beyond trade policy shocks, markets face additional geopolitical pressures. Analysts point out that the Trump administration may launch limited military strikes against Iran to pressure Tehran into making concessions on nuclear agreements. Such speculation has further intensified market risk-aversion sentiment, driving investors away from risk assets like Bitcoin.

 

On social investment platform Stocktwits, retail investor sentiment indicators continue to show "bearish" signals. One seasoned trader stated he expects Bitcoin price to fall to the $48,000-$50,000 range within the next three weeks, calling the current technical setup "the single worst technical pattern" he has ever seen in Bitcoin.

 

Another investor ironically noted that during a "pro-crypto President's" administration, Bitcoin prices have actually plummeted significantly. He predicts Bitcoin will touch $38,000 in the short term and could potentially fall to $20,000 within a year. According to historical data analysis from CoinGecko, such price levels would bring Bitcoin back to the low zones of the 2022 bear market.

 

 

In the current highly volatile market environment, choosing a reliable and efficient trading platform is crucial. MEXC, as a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, demonstrates unique advantages during periods of market turbulence.

 

MEXC platform boasts the industry's most comprehensive selection of trading pairs, covering over 2,000 pairs, enabling investors to easily capture various market opportunities. Whether mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, or emerging altcoin projects, investors can find ideal trading targets on MEXC.

 

More notably, MEXC offers the industry's lowest trading fees. Spot trading fees are as low as 0.0% (maker) and 0.02% (taker), meaning frequent traders can significantly reduce trading costs and maintain higher profit margins in volatile markets. For professional traders, lower fees can generate substantial cost advantages in high-frequency trading strategies.

 

In terms of market liquidity, MEXC's order book depth ranks among the top globally. Even during severe Bitcoin price fluctuations, the MEXC platform ensures rapid order execution, avoiding excessive losses due to large slippage. This depth advantage is particularly important for large-scale traders.

 

MEXC is also renowned in the industry for its "fastest listing speed." The platform can quickly list trending market projects, allowing investors to capture emerging opportunities at the earliest moment. During current market adjustment phases, timely positioning in potential projects may generate excess returns.

 

Regarding fund security, MEXC provides 100% reserve guarantee, with every user asset backed by corresponding reserves. This transparent asset management mechanism has become particularly important following exchange collapse events like FTX, providing investors with additional security assurance.

 

Additionally, MEXC's withdrawal fees remain at the industry's lowest levels. In the current market environment, investors may need to frequently transfer assets to optimize allocation, and low withdrawal fees can effectively reduce asset management costs.

 

 

 

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $65,000, a price level that has repeatedly served as a key support in the past. However, if it falls below this level and fails to quickly recover, the next significant support will appear around $60,000.

 

According to statistics from on-chain data analysis platforms, the $60,000-$62,000 range represents a dense cost concentration zone for many investors. If Bitcoin breaks below this range, it could trigger larger-scale panic selling, thereby accelerating the downward price movement.

 

From volatility indicators, Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has risen to yearly highs, reflecting increasing market uncertainty. Historical experience shows that high volatility periods are often accompanied by severe price fluctuations, requiring investors to prepare for risk management.

 

 

Facing the current complex market environment, investors should adopt more prudent investment strategies. First, diversification is recommended—don't concentrate all funds in a single asset. Even if bullish on Bitcoin's long-term value, allocate a certain proportion to stablecoins or other assets to reduce portfolio risk.

 

Second, leverage the high liquidity advantages of platforms like MEXC to consider adopting dollar-cost averaging strategies. Building positions in batches during price declines can effectively lower average holding costs while avoiding the risk of buying at peaks.

 

For investors with higher risk appetite, utilize MEXC platform's rich derivatives tools for hedging operations. Through reasonable allocation of spot and contract positions, profit opportunities can be captured even during market declines through short positions.

 

Finally, closely monitor macroeconomic data and policy developments. The Trump administration's tariff policies and their impact on global trade patterns will continue to affect cryptocurrency markets. Investors should maintain information sensitivity and adjust portfolios timely.

 

 

 

According to data from prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, currently 61% to 72% of market participants believe Bitcoin will fall below $50,000-$55,000 in 2026. While prediction markets have certain reference value, cryptocurrency prices are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic environment, regulatory policies, technological developments, and market sentiment. Investors should comprehensively consider various factors and make prudent investment decisions rather than relying solely on prediction market data.

 

 

Trump's announced 15% import tariff directly triggered turbulence in global financial markets, with cryptocurrency markets bearing the brunt as high-risk assets. Tariff policies may lead to slowing global economic growth and rising inflation pressures, all factors affecting investor risk appetite. Historically, during periods of increased economic uncertainty, investors tend to reduce allocations to risk assets like Bitcoin, seeking traditional safe-haven assets instead. Additionally, tariff policies may affect USD movements, and dollar strength typically shows negative correlation with Bitcoin prices. Therefore, continuously monitoring trade policy developments is crucial for understanding Bitcoin price trends.

 

 

MEXC holds significant advantages across multiple dimensions. First, the platform features over 2,000 trading pairs, making it one of the most comprehensive exchanges in the industry, meeting diverse investor needs. Second, MEXC's trading fees are at industry-lowest levels, with spot trading fees as low as 0.0%-0.02%, saving substantial costs for frequent traders. Third, MEXC provides excellent order book depth and liquidity, ensuring rapid execution even during severe market volatility. Fourth, the platform is known for fast listing speeds, allowing users to participate in new projects at the earliest opportunity. Fifth, MEXC provides 100% reserve guarantee and industry-lowest withdrawal fees, offering clear advantages in both fund security and usage costs. These characteristics make MEXC an ideal choice for both professional investors and beginners.

 

 

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks with severe price volatility, and investors may face the risk of total principal loss. Price predictions and market analyses mentioned in this article are based on publicly available information and historical data, with no guarantee of future performance. Investors should make independent judgments based on their financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance, consulting professional financial advisors when necessary. Information about trading platforms like MEXC mentioned in this article is for reference only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any platform. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and carefully evaluate related risks. Past performance does not represent future results, and any investment decision risks are borne by investors themselves.

 

 

This article was last updated in February 2026 and written by a senior analyst with 8 years of deep experience in the cryptocurrency industry. The author has long tracked Bitcoin and mainstream cryptocurrency market dynamics, possessing rich practical experience in blockchain technology, digital asset investment, and market trend analysis. Article content is based on comprehensive analysis of multiple authoritative data sources, striving to provide readers with objective and professional market insights.

 

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