Ethereum weakness persists despite whale accumulation

Ethereum’s technical and on-chain metrics are sending mixed signals, leaving the market uncertain about the next direction. While one major player is aggressively buying, the broader picture suggests weakness may persist.

Supply in profit hits multi-year lows

A key indicator for Ethereum has deteriorated significantly. The share of ETH supply sitting at more than 3x profit has dropped to just 11%. That is the lowest level since February 2017. This means far fewer holders are sitting on large gains compared to previous cycles.

As more holders drift toward breakeven or fall into losses, the market needs large buyers to step in and absorb supply. Without that, maintaining confidence becomes harder. The data suggests conviction in the market is eroding.

A whale buys while another shorts

Against this backdrop, BitMine’s accumulation of 126,000 ETH, worth roughly $213 million, over the past week stands out. The timing seems deliberate. With Ethereum’s structure weakening, this aggressive buying signals conviction at a point when many remain hesitant.

But not everyone shares that optimism. On-chain data flagged by Lookonchain shows at least one whale positioning for further downside. A wallet recently borrowed 18,000 ETH from Aave, worth about $29.8 million, and sold those tokens into the market. That is effectively a leveraged short.

Technical signs point lower

From a technical perspective, the short trade has merit. Ethereum has now closed four straight weeks in the red. The latest weekly candle dropped more than 15% and swept as low as $1,500. Despite BitMine’s buying, ETH has yet to show a meaningful reaction, extending its weakness into this week.

The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to 0.026, its lowest level since March 2016. In simple terms, the market is pricing Ethereum relative to Bitcoin at levels last seen before DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2s existed. That is a clear sign of underperformance.

Risk-reward favors bears for now

Taken together, ETH’s weakness is showing up across both technical and on-chain metrics. While BitMine continues to accumulate, the market has yet to respond. That leaves the short thesis looking more attractive from a risk-reward perspective. A breakdown below the $1,500 support zone seems increasingly likely.

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