Bitcoin Price Jumps 2% on Iran Peace Deal: Is BTC Bottom Finally In?

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin price moved from $61,100 to above $63,600 on June 11 after Trump announced a potential Iran peace deal

• RSI on the daily chart sits at 32.46, a zone historically linked to short-term relief bounces before any reversal

• Over $257.69 million in crypto liquidations hit the market in 24 hours; $120.90 million in shorts were squeezed in 12 hours

• Elliott Wave analysis maps downside targets at $59,475, $53,117, and $45,018 if the Y-wave correction is still active

• The next FOMC meeting is five days away and may be the clearest catalyst for what comes next

Bitcoin got its biggest single-day pop in weeks on Thursday. Trump said the US and Iran are close to signing a memorandum of understanding, and risk assets flew.

BTC moved from $61,100 to above $63,400 within hours. The Nasdaq jumped 2.5%, the S&P 500 gained 1.75%, and the Dow added over 900 points on the same day.

The chart, though, is telling a more complicated story.

Why Is Bitcoin Going Up Today?

Trump cancelled planned military strikes on Iran on June 11 and said a peace deal could arrive as early as this weekend. Markets read it as a green light to buy.

Crypto was already primed for a short squeeze. Daily RSI had fallen to 32.46, deep in oversold territory. When geopolitical fear lifted, buyers stepped in fast.

The squeeze was sharp. In the 12 hours following the news, $120.90 million in short positions were liquidated versus only $52.30 million in longs, per CoinGlass.

Is Bitcoin in Oversold Territory Right Now?

RSI near 32 sits at the lower end of its typical daily range. Readings this low often come before short-term relief bounces. They don't always signal a full trend reversal.

MACD gives the other side of the argument. It reads at -246.01, with the signal line at -3,573.48. Momentum has not turned. Sells are still in control of price action.

The bigger picture from the 1D chart shows Bitcoin broke out of a rising parallel channel it had held since early 2026. The drop from the $75,000-$80,000 zone down to $59,000 came in two sharp legs, both roughly 30% each. Price is now attempting a minor consolidation at $63,000.

A short-term bounce toward $68,000-$72,000 is possible. That zone is the lower boundary of the broken channel and now acts as the first major resistance wall.

What Does Elliott Wave Analysis Show for Bitcoin Right Now?

The daily EW count maps a WXY double-correction running from the cycle ATH above $126,000.

Wave W bottomed near $80,345. Wave X recovered to around $93,960. Now wave Y is unfolding. Inside Y, wave A pushed down toward $45,018, wave B bounced back to $82,865, and wave C of Y looks like it is still in motion.

The current price near $63,000 sits right at the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Y-wave structure. Downside targets if wave C extends further:

The core takeaway from this count is that the WXY structure is a correction from the ATH, not a new bear cycle. A new all-time high should come eventually. But the Y wave needs to finish first, and right now it is not confirmed to be complete.

Will Bitcoin Price Drop to $40,000 in 2026?

If BTC fails to flip $63,000 into support and then breaks below $60,000 on a daily close, the bearish scenarios get activated.

Scenario 1 points to $43,000 by August. Scenario 2 extends the decline to $32,000 by September.

The step-down path would track: $53,000 first, then $48,000, then $43,000, with $32,000 as the outer worst-case level. None of these plays out unless $60,000 breaks with conviction.

How Many Bitcoin Traders Were Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours?

A total of 95,508 traders were forced out of positions in the past 24 hours. Total liquidations across crypto came in at $257.69 million, per CoinGlass.

The single biggest wipeout was a $11.87 million ETHUSDT long on Binance.

In the four hours following the Iran news, $25.17 million in positions were closed. Longs accounted for $18.68 million, shorts for $6.50 million. The majority of the damage to the shorts happened in that window.

What Will the FOMC Meeting Do to Bitcoin Price This Week?

The Fed meets in five days. That event is now the biggest macro item on the calendar for crypto.

A dovish tone or any hint at future rate cuts would likely add fuel to the current bounce and give BTC room to push toward the $68,000-$72,000 zone.

A hawkish hold or tighter-than-expected language would remove a key prop from risk assets.

The FOMC outcome may also settle the Elliott Wave question. Whether the Y-wave correction ends near current levels or has another leg lower could depend heavily on what Kevin Warsh says next week.

Until then, $63,000 is resistance, and $59,000 is the line in the sand.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decision. Crypto markets are highly volatile. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.