Is FedEx (FDX) Stock a Buy Ahead of Q4 Earnings Tuesday?

TLDR

• FedEx reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on June 23, after market close
• Wall Street expects EPS of $5.96 and revenue of $24.04 billion
• FDX stock is up around 40% year-to-date, trading near all-time highs
• The FedEx Freight spin-off completed June 1 will be a key talking point
• Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $160, citing margin pressures

FedEx (FDX) is set to report its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on June 23, after market close, and the street is paying close attention.

FedEx Corporation, FDX

FDX stock is up around 40% year-to-date, trading near all-time highs. Traders, per the TipRanks Options Tool, are pricing in a move of roughly 7.73% in either direction following the report.

Wall Street’s consensus estimate sits at EPS of $5.96, up from $4.89 in Q4 last year. Revenue is expected to come in at $24.04 billion, compared to $22.2 billion in the same period a year ago.

Zacks has its own numbers slightly different — EPS of $5.91 and revenue of $24.18 billion — but the direction is the same. The Zacks earnings estimate was revised upward by 1.9% over the past 60 days.

The Earnings ESP sits at +3.76%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at $6.13 — 22 cents above the consensus. That combination of a Zacks Rank #3 and a positive Earnings ESP points toward a likely earnings beat.

FedEx Freight Spin-Off in Focus

The big news heading into this report is the completed spin-off of FedEx Freight, which became a standalone public company on June 1. Management is expected to address the separation on the earnings call, though Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker noted that full standalone visibility into the Parcel and Freight businesses won’t come until late October as disclosures roll out in phases.

That uncertainty is part of why Shanker lowered his price target to $160, down from $230. He expects Q4 EBIT and EPS to come in modestly below consensus as margin pressures continue to outweigh what he describes as stable revenue trends.

Not everyone is that cautious. On TipRanks, FDX currently holds a Strong Buy consensus based on 17 Buy ratings, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell. The consensus price target is $412.45, implying around 26% upside. The highest target on the street is $479.

Cost Cuts and AI Drive the Story

Much of FDX’s year-to-date run has been driven by internal changes rather than a booming macro backdrop. The DRIVE cost-cutting program — which includes lower flight frequencies, grounded aircraft, and workforce reductions — has been the main engine.

AI has also played a role, with FedEx using it to optimize routing, improve capacity planning and cut operating costs.

The company has also leaned into premium B2B and B2C volumes, especially in healthcare, to support yields.

One item likely to come up on the call is FedEx’s multi-year deal with Amazon, signed last year, under which FedEx handles deliveries of selected oversized packages. That deal came shortly after rival UPS said it would reduce its own Amazon volume.

For full-year fiscal 2026, the Zacks EPS consensus stands at $19.78, up 8.7% from last year, with revenue expected to grow 6.6%.

FDX is currently trading at a discount to both the industry average and UPS on a forward Price/Sales basis, with a Value Score of B.

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