Bitcoin Sees Sudden $24K Wick as Analysts Flag Growing Model Gap

Bitcoin drew fresh attention after two separate posts on X highlighted unusual price signals, including a brief Binance pair plunge and a widening gap versus stock and gold models.

Shanaka Anslem Perera said a widely shared screenshot claiming Bitcoin fell to $24,000 on Christmas reflected a short lived wick on Binance’s BTC USD1 pair, not a market wide crash.

Binance BTC USD1 Pair Briefly Dropped as Traders Cited Thin Liquidity, Perera Says

Shanaka Anslem Perera said a widely shared screenshot claiming Bitcoin fell to $24,000 on Christmas reflected a brief price wick on a single, illiquid Binance trading pair, not a broader market crash.

In a post on X, Perera wrote that the BTC USD1 pair “wicked down” about 72% for roughly three seconds, while BTC USDT did not trade below $86,400. He said the move appeared limited to one order book and ended quickly as arbitrage activity closed the gap.

Perera linked the volatility to a Binance promotion that he said offered 20% APY on USD1 deposits about 24 hours earlier. He said traders moved from USDT into USD1 to pursue the yield, which he claimed reduced sell side liquidity on the BTC USD1 market. Perera said a large market sell then hit a thin book, pushing the price down to the nearest bids, which he identified as $24,111, before prices normalized.

Perera also said a similar spike occurred on Dec. 10, when BTC/USD1 briefly dropped from about $96,000 to $76,000. He argued that posts alleging “manipulation” did not provide on chain evidence, while posts calling it a “crash” drew major attention.

Perera added that the episode highlights risks tied to newly listed stablecoin pairs, including liquidity gaps during promotional campaigns. He also said USD1, the stablecoin used in the pair, is issued by Trump linked World Liberty Financial and has passed a $3 billion market cap.

Bitcoin Trades Below Stock and Gold Models, PlanB Says

Bitcoin traded near $87,500 on Friday, sitting well below levels implied by its historic correlation with U.S. stocks and gold, according to an analysis shared by PlanB.

In a post on X, PlanB said model comparisons place Bitcoin closer to $6,900 when aligned with equities and around $4,500 when aligned with gold. He described the gap as unusually wide, noting that the current price appears “way off” past relationships shown in long term regression charts.

Bitcoin Price Divergence Chart. Source: X (PlanB)

PlanB said a similar disconnect occurred when Bitcoin traded below $1,000 in earlier market cycles. At that time, he said, the divergence preceded a sharp rally that eventually lifted prices by roughly ten times. However, he added that historical correlation does not guarantee future outcomes.

The analyst said the relationship between Bitcoin, stocks, and gold could remain broken. If so, he said, the current cycle may unfold differently from past episodes. PlanB did not provide a timeframe for convergence and said only that markets would determine whether correlations reassert themselves.