Citi Slashes BTC & ETH Outlook: Here’s What Changed

• Citi cuts Bitcoin target to $112K and Ethereum to $3,175 on weaker demand outlook
• US crypto bill delays reduce chances of near-term regulatory support
• Bitcoin could fall to $58K or rise to $165K based on market conditions

Citigroup has reduced 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum as delays in United States crypto legislation weaken demand expectations. The bank cited slower ETF inflows, reduced institutional interest, and limited regulatory progress as key factors behind the revised outlook, while warning that macro conditions could pressure digital asset prices.

Revised Bitcoin and Ethereum Forecasts by Citigroup

Citigroup has reduced its 12-month forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum due to slower progress on U.S. crypto regulation. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $112,000, down from $143,000. Ethereum is projected at $3,175, reduced from $4,304.

The revision follows delays in passing crypto market structure legislation in the U.S. Senate. Disagreements over stablecoin rules have slowed the Clarity Act. The timeline for approval before 2026 has also narrowed. Citi strategist Alex Saunders said, “Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing.” 

The bank noted that ETF flows remain a main driver, but demand estimates have been lowered. Bitcoin traded near $74,298, while Ethereum stood around $2,345 during early Tuesday trading. Citi expects Bitcoin to move within a range as markets wait for legislative updates.

Regulatory Delays and ETF Demand Shape Outlook

Progress on crypto legislation remains uncertain in the United States. The Clarity Act faces challenges in the Senate due to ongoing policy disagreements. Lawmakers continue to debate stablecoin rules and oversight measures. The bill requires support from at least seven Senate Democrats to pass. 

Some lawmakers want restrictions on elected officials profiting from crypto ventures. This issue has gained attention in recent months. Citi stated that chances of passing a crypto bill may decline further after the midterm elections. If Democrats gain more seats, consensus may become harder to achieve. This could delay regulatory clarity for the market.

ETF flows have been a key factor supporting crypto prices. However, Citi lowered its expectations for these flows due to slower institutional adoption. The bank also cited reduced confidence in near-term policy changes.

Macro Risks and Price Scenarios Remain Wide

Citi outlined different scenarios based on macroeconomic conditions. In a weaker environment, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000. Ethereum could drop to $1,198 under similar conditions.

In a stronger demand scenario, Bitcoin may rise to $165,000. Ethereum could reach $4,488 if investor interest improves. These projections depend on both market conditions and user activity.

The bank noted that Ethereum remains sensitive to network usage metrics. Recent data shows weaker activity levels, which may limit price growth. However, stablecoin use and tokenization trends could support future demand.

Markets are also watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for signals on interest rates. Monetary policy decisions may affect risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Citi added that Bitcoin may continue to trade around the $70,000 level in the near term. This level reflects pricing before the U.S. election cycle began.

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