Rivian (RIVN) Upgraded, But Analysts Stay Cautious on EV Maker

TLDR

• D.A. Davidson upgraded RIVN from Sell to Hold, citing improved valuation after a 24%+ year-to-date decline
• Price target stays at $14 — analyst prefers to stay on the sidelines
• R2 pricing came in 55% higher than expected for some customers, drawing a mixed reaction
• Volkswagen triggered an additional $1B investment after Rivian completed winter testing for their joint venture
• Uber agreed to invest up to $1.25B in Rivian through 2031, with plans to purchase 10,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis

Rivian stock caught an upgrade on Wednesday, but it wasn’t enough to keep the bulls happy. D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky lifted his rating on RIVN from Sell to Hold, pointing to a “more reasonable valuation” after the stock’s sharp pullback. His price target stays at $14 — right around where the stock closed.

Rivian Automotive, Inc., RIVN

Rivian is down more than 24% year-to-date. That’s a rough start to the year, especially with rising oil prices, which have historically nudged buyers toward EVs.

The upgrade didn’t spark much excitement. RIVN briefly traded as high as $15.82 before closing at $14.94 — a 0.73% loss on the day.

Shlisky described investor reaction to the R2 launch as “mixed at best.” The Performance and Premium R2 trims start at around $58,000 and $54,000 respectively. The Standard models won’t arrive until 2027, with the long-range version starting at $48,500 and the base at $45,000.

For some buyers, those prices came in 55% higher than expected. That’s not a small gap. Shlisky flagged it as a real risk to Rivian’s target of delivering 20,000 to 25,000 R2 units in 2025.

The expiry of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September added another headwind. Rivian’s R1 platform models start above $70,000, which already limits the buyer pool. The R2 was supposed to be the more accessible option.

Bright Spots Worth Watching

It’s not all bad news. Rivian recently wrapped up winter testing on the first vehicle from its joint venture with Volkswagen. That milestone triggered an additional $1 billion investment from VW — a meaningful vote of confidence.

Uber also stepped up, agreeing to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031. The deal includes a plan to purchase 10,000 fully autonomous R2 robotaxis, with an option for up to 40,000 more in 2030.

Wall Street Stays Cautious

Wall Street is sitting on the fence. The consensus is Hold, based on nine Buy ratings, eight Holds, and five Sells. The average price target sits at $17.50, suggesting about 17% upside from current levels.

For context, 18% of analysts rate RIVN a Sell — well above the S&P 500 average of under 10%. Buy ratings come in just below 50%, versus the typical 55%–60% for S&P 500 names.

Rivian needs scale to reach profitability. Wall Street sees the company needing around 400,000 annual deliveries to hit positive operating profit. For 2026, analysts expect roughly 64,000 vehicles — up from 42,000 in 2025.

The average analyst price target for Rivian is approximately $18.

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