United Airlines (UAL) Stock Falls After Slashing 2026 Earnings Forecast

TLDR

• United Airlines cut its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $7–$11, down from $12–$14, blaming higher jet fuel costs.
• Q1 2026 results beat expectations — EPS of $1.19 vs. $1.15 estimate, revenue of $14.61B vs. $14.19B forecast.
• Jet fuel costs added roughly $340M in drag during the quarter, forcing United to pull about 5 points of planned capacity.
• Q2 2026 EPS guidance came in at $1.00–$2.00, compared to a Wall Street consensus of $1.96.
• UAL stock fell 1.8% to $97.13 on the news, with president Brett J. Hart having sold 19,000 shares earlier this year.

United Airlines beat Q1 earnings estimates but turned heads with a sharp cut to its full-year outlook, sending the stock lower despite the quarterly win.

For Q1 2026, UAL posted EPS of $1.19, topping the consensus estimate of $1.15. Revenue came in at $14.61 billion, above the $14.19 billion Wall Street expected. Net margins stood at 5.68%, with a return on equity of 25.13%.

But the beat was overshadowed quickly. The airline slashed its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $7–$11, a steep drop from its prior range of $12–$14. That’s a cut of as much as $7 at the top end.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL

The main culprit: jet fuel. Higher Gulf Coast jet fuel prices added approximately $340 million in costs during the quarter. United said fuel price volatility remains a key risk to where results land within its new guidance range.

If fuel prices ease, United expects to hit the higher end of its revised forecast. If they stay elevated, results will likely fall toward the lower end.

Capacity Cuts on the Way

To manage costs, United plans to trim roughly 5 percentage points of its previously planned capacity. Q3 and Q4 capacity is now expected to come in flat to up 2%.

For Q2 2026, the company guided to EPS of $1.00–$2.00. The Street was expecting around $1.96, putting United’s midpoint below consensus.

That wide guidance range reflects how much fuel prices are driving the company’s financial outlook right now.

Analyst Ratings Still Mostly Positive

Despite the cuts, Wall Street hasn’t turned bearish. United holds a consensus “Buy” rating from analysts, with a price target of $131.19. Fifteen analysts have a Buy rating, one has Strong Buy, and just one has a Hold.

Barclays has an “Overweight” rating with a $150 price target. TD Cowen recently upgraded UAL to “Strong Buy.” Wells Fargo trimmed its target to $130 but kept its “Overweight” rating.

UAL’s current P/E ratio sits at 9.5x, which is relatively low for the airline sector. Its GF Score of 82 out of 100 points to solid long-term potential based on profitability and growth.

However, the company’s financial strength score is 5 out of 10, reflecting concerns around debt levels and liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.35.

On the insider front, president Brett J. Hart sold 19,000 UAL shares in February at an average price of $106.45, totaling around $2 million. No insider purchases have been reported in the past three months.

UAL stock traded at $97.13 on Tuesday, down $1.78 on the day, on volume of 9.74 million — above its average of 7.19 million. The stock’s 12-month range is $65.26 to $119.21.

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