A Dubai property launch party in the shadow of war

• Danube Group launches ‘Greenz’
• Reality check wrapped in pep talk
• ‘Market is slow but has not stopped’

Giant screens with walkthroughs of chandeliered villas, a glowing scale model of a master development and thousands of brokers crowding the floor in an arena-turned-ballroom – it was just like Dubai’s pre-war property boom.

But when Rizwan Sajan took the stage, the chairman of developer Danube Group offered something less familiar in the emirate’s real estate market: a reality check wrapped in a pep talk.

“[Before] we had to work for one hour to close the deal,” he told the more than 6,000 brokers gathered for the launch of “Greenz”, the first gated villa and townhouse community launched by the company’s real estate arm Danube Properties.

“Today we have to work five or six hours to close the deal. The market is slow, but the market has not stopped.”

Sajan’s remarks offered a rare public acknowledgment that developers are beginning to adapt to a more demanding phase of the market as the Iran war weighs on sentiment.

Tehran’s missile strikes on Dubai – though largely intercepted by UAE air defences – punctured the sense of distance that had insulated the emirate’s property boom from regional tensions.

Home prices have risen more than 70 percent since 2020, but the conflict, and a brief flare-up during the ceasefire, has introduced a new hesitation into a market that primarily relies on population growth fuelled by expatriate inflows and foreign capital.

Reuters/ANI

Raising broker stakes

In a moving video tribute shown at the launch, Danube said: “Every great country is tested, and every time this country answered. When the world doubted, it stood tall. It built. It progressed.”

Sajan echoed that message on stage.

“This is the country for us,” he told brokers, adding that Danube had avoided layoffs despite the slowdown and had instead paid employees double bonuses in March – a signal of the company’s confidence in the UAE market.

The company is also leaning harder on incentives to keep deals moving, including special “mega sale” events offering discounts.

Danube has eased payment plans so buyers pay a smaller portion upfront and more on completion. To keep brokers motivated, commissions start at 5 percent – already towards the higher end of Dubai’s off-plan market – and rise to 7 percent for brokers transacting AED50 million before the end of June.

The developer is also promising to settle commissions within 24 hours, notable in a market where delayed payments of 90 to 120 days have become a quiet grievance.

“When you sell for my competitors, how many days do you get your payment,” Sajan asked the room.

‘Not over leveraged’

He argued that Danube could afford to pay brokers quickly and continue building through a weaker market because it carried limited debt.

“The company is not over leveraged,” he said, adding that the company had sold nearly 90 percent of inventory from previous projects.

“In business, I always look at the loss – not profit – which I am going to make. If I can sustain that loss, I will go ahead with the project.”

Sajan, an early investor in Dubai property who built Danube from a small building materials trader into a $2.5 billion conglomerate, said the company had stockpiled at least three months of supplies in its warehouses, giving it protection if logistics remain disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Today, a lot of companies have a problem in the logistics or the building material supplies because of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. But we have stock to complete all my projects.”

• Dubai scraps property visa minimum for investor residency
• Dubai property sellers slashing millions off prices
• Dubai property can bounce back but prepare for a tough summer

Sajan said roughly three quarters of the building materials used across Danube’s projects come from the company’s own building materials business.

Danube’s latest project’s investment case was presented by Sajan’s son Adel, who said they paid four times more for the central plot near Academic City than for a cheaper alternative, citing its proximity to government plans to develop the surrounding area into a technology district expected to attract 6,500 companies, alongside the Blue Line metro extension.

He projects potential capital appreciation of 50-60 percent by delivery, a number he described as “very conservative”.

Dubai residential sales fell by nearly a fifth to AED37 billion in March from the previous month, and edged up only slightly in April, Dubai Land Department data showed – the market’s worst stretch since the pandemic.

Off-plan sales, which make up nearly three-quarters of transactions, fell 14 percent year-on-year and investors who bought multiple units hoping to flip before completion are under pressure from payment plans and rising job losses.

Greedy for a good deal

Citi analysts said the war poses a “considerable risk” to population growth, forecasting expansion of 1 percent this year and 2.5 percent annually through 2031, down from roughly 4 percent in recent years.

Last month, Dubai scrapped the minimum property investment threshold for residency visas to incentivise buyers.

Brokers at the event told AGBI buyers were still active but negotiating harder and hopeful prices will fall further over the summer.

“They are greedy for more discounts, asking for distress sales,” one broker said.

Another broker said he has sold to customers from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

“They are ready to buy in cash if you find them a good deal,” he said.