Wintermute Flags Weak Flows Across Crypto Market

TLDR

• Wintermute says capital has not returned, and no crypto market bottom is confirmed.
• Bitcoin trades near $62,000 after a 14% weekly decline.
• The firm attributes the drop to US institutional selling and ETF outflows.
• Strategy sold 32 BTC but later disclosed a 1,550 BTC purchase.
• Bitcoin’s sentiment score fell more than 92% within days.

Wintermute says capital has not returned, and no bottom stands confirmed. Bitcoin trades near $62,000 after a 14% weekly drop, while the Nasdaq fell 4.7%.

The June 8 desk note attributes the slide to US institutional selling and ETF outflows. It rejects Strategy’s 32 BTC sale as immaterial in size and signal. Disclosures show Strategy later bought 1,550 BTC, reversing the brief sale.

However, sentiment metrics shifted sharply during the sale’s circulation window. Bitcoin’s positive sentiment score fell from 814 on June 3 to 61. That drop exceeds 92%, even though the coins never reached order books.

Bitcoin and the Crypto Market: Flows and Sentiment Shift

Bitcoin now trades near $62,000, returning to September 2024 levels. Wintermute links the drop to ETF outflows and institutional selling. The firm states, “Capital has not returned,” citing persistent redemptions.

Stablecoin exchange reserves show reduced buying power across venues. CryptoQuant data shows reserves peaked at $75.12 billion on November 12, 2025. The pool fell to $62.81 billion by June 10, 2026, a 16% decline.

That level sits below late September 2025 balances, before the price peak formed. DefiLlama reports total stablecoin float at $315.97 billion. The figure fell by $3.25 billion in one week after topping $323 billion.

ETF data tracks the same contraction across the cycle. SoSoValue shows $6.02 billion in inflows during July 2025. September and October added $3.53 billion and $3.42 billion as prices reached $126,210.

Then, flows reversed and extended losses for four months. November through February marked the longest red streak since launch. November alone recorded a $3.48 billion monthly outflow.

May posted $2.43 billion in outflows, the worst month of 2026. June has already lost $1.89 billion in ten days. Fund assets fell from $147.73 billion to $77.58 billion during the slide.

Macro Data and Cycle Timing Reinforce the Call

Macro releases tightened conditions and reduced easing expectations. May payrolls printed 172,000 jobs, against roughly 80,000 expected. Service prices reached their hottest level since August 2022.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.55% on Friday. Some analysts now discuss oil-driven inflation as a rate hike trigger. Wintermute states that macro strength reads as negative for risk assets.

The desk also flags a structural gap below current prices. Bitcoin spent little time between $50,000 and $59,000 in 2024. The firm argues that fewer shelves exist underneath to slow declines.

Cycle timing commentary aligns with the flow shift. Rekt Capital projected an October 2025 top using halving patterns. October became the final month of material ETF inflows before the downturn.

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