Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Sink to Cycle Lows as Selling Pressure Fades

Data from CryptoQuant shows that monthly BTC inflows to Binance have fallen to roughly 5,700–5,800 BTC, a level not seen since 2020.

This matters because Binance remains the single largest venue for spot BTC liquidity. Persistent changes in its inflow dynamics tend to reflect broader shifts in investor intent rather than isolated exchange-specific behavior.

Binance inflows drop far below historical norms

Historically, Binance has received an average of around 12,000 BTC per month in inflows. That figure has now been cut by more than half, with the 30-day moving average sitting near 5.7k BTC, as highlighted on the chart.

More importantly, this is not a one-off anomaly. Inflows have remained consistently below the 12,000 BTC historical average for several consecutive months, suggesting a structural change rather than temporary inactivity caused by noise or large, isolated transfers.

The use of a monthly average further reinforces this view by filtering out short-term spikes that can distort daily readings.

Why exchange inflows matter for market structure

Bitcoin inflows to exchanges are typically associated with potential selling pressure. Coins moving from cold storage or long-term on-chain holding into exchange wallets are, in most cases, being positioned for sale or collateralization.

The current environment shows the opposite behavior. Despite heightened macro uncertainty and extended price consolidation, BTC holders are not transferring coins to exchanges at historical rates. This implies that fewer participants are preparing to sell into rallies or hedge downside risk through spot distribution.

Given Binance’s dominant share of global exchange flows, its inflow contraction provides a reliable proxy for broader market intent rather than a localized effect.

Structural signal, not a short-term fluctuation

The persistence of low inflows is the key takeaway. Short-lived drops in exchange inflows often occur during periods of low volatility or holiday liquidity. What differentiates the current setup is duration. Inflows have stayed suppressed for months, even as Bitcoin has traded through wide ranges and experienced sharp corrections.

This behavior suggests that the market is transitioning from reactive selling toward passive holding, with supply increasingly staying off exchanges. In past cycles, similar conditions have tended to appear during late consolidation phases, where sellers become exhausted before a new directional move develops.

Conclusion

Bitcoin inflows to Binance averaging around 5.7k BTC per month, compared with a long-term norm of ~12k BTC, represent a meaningful shift in market behavior. Despite a sizable drawdown and ongoing macro stress, holders appear more inclined to retain custody rather than distribute.

From a structural perspective, this points to reduced sell-side pressure rather than latent distribution. While it does not guarantee immediate upside, the data supports a market environment where holding, not selling, has become the dominant behavior.

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