XRP Price: Retail Buyers Step In but Whales Stay Quiet Before the Big SEC Decision

TLDR

• XRP dropped 3.52% to around $1.40 as broader crypto market fell roughly 2%
• The SEC faces a final deadline on March 27 to rule on multiple spot XRP ETF applications
• Retail wallets holding under 100 XRP hit a record high of 5.66 million
• Whale wallets holding over 100,000 XRP remain flat at 32,054, suggesting large holders are not buying the dip
• XRP futures Open Interest dropped over 5% to $2.33 billion, pointing to reduced investor appetite

XRP is trading under pressure as the March 27 SEC spot ETF deadline approaches. Retail investors appear to be buying the dip, but whale activity remains quiet and exchange reserves are rising — a mix that signals caution in the near term.

The broader crypto market has lost around 2% in total capitalization, now sitting at $2.36 trillion. Bitcoin has stayed below $70,000 during this stretch.

XRP fell 3.52% over the weekend to around $1.40. The token failed to hold above the $1.45 resistance level, and selling pressure has pushed it below the $1.40 support zone.

On the technical side, the MACD histogram is showing bearish signals. The signal line has crossed below the MACD line, confirming the current downward trend in the short term.

Key support is sitting near $1.38. If that level breaks, traders are watching the $1.35 area as the next floor. A move back above $1.45 would be needed to shift sentiment, while clearing $1.50 would open the path toward the $1.55 resistance level.

SEC ETF Deadline: March 27

March 27 marks the SEC’s final deadline for a batch of outstanding XRP spot ETF applications. Pending applicants include Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton.

Grayscale is looking to convert its $2.1 billion XRP trust into a spot ETF. Franklin Templeton has proposed a 0.15% fee to stay competitive. Bloomberg analysts currently put the odds of at least one approval before year-end at 95%.

U.S.-based spot XRP investment vehicles have already attracted $1.44 billion, mostly from retail investors. Industry estimates suggest that institutional inflows could reach $8 billion if approvals come through, with pension funds and retirement accounts expected to be key sources of that capital.

ProShares already launched a 2x leveraged XRP ETF on NYSE Arca back in July 2025. And in March, the SEC and CFTC released a joint 68-page regulatory framework, categorizing XRP as a digital commodity alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin.

On-Chain Retail Buying, Whales Sitting Still

Santiment data shows wallets holding under 100 XRP have hit a record 5.66 million. Wallets in the 100 to 100,000 XRP range also hit a record at 2.01 million. But wallets holding more than 100,000 XRP remain stagnant at 32,054, following a drop in early February.

This pattern often signals that retail buyers are providing exit liquidity for larger holders.

CryptoQuant data shows XRP reserves on Binance have risen to 2.79 billion XRP, up from 2.55 billion in early February. Rising exchange reserves typically point to increased sell pressure.

CoinGlass data puts XRP futures Open Interest at $2.33 billion, down more than 5% from $2.47 billion the previous day. Open Interest has been falling for most of 2026, pointing to reduced leveraged exposure.

XRP is currently down around 25% year-to-date.

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