STX is stuck in a horizontal range around $0.30, facing short-term bearish signals. RSI at 41.55 is in the neutral-bearish zone, MACD shows a negative histogram, and price is below EMA20 ($0.34). However, while support levels ($0.2972) hold strong, the decrease in volume makes both scenarios possible: quick recovery on upside breakout, deep correction risk on downside breakout. Traders should adjust their positions accordingly by monitoring key levels.
Current Market Situation
STX is trading at $0.30 level with a 7.25% drop in the last 24 hours. The daily range is squeezed between $0.30-$0.33 and volume is at low levels with $11.19M. The overall trend is horizontal, but short-term technical indicators are under bearish pressure: RSI at 41.55 not yet approaching oversold, MACD negative histogram widening, price remaining below EMA20 ($0.34), and Supertrend giving bearish signal, with $0.39 resistance prominent.
In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, balanced 2 supports/2 resistances on 1W. Main supports are $0.2972 (strength score 77/100), $0.2364 (63/100), and $0.2659 (61/100). Resistances stand out at $0.3363 (75/100) and $0.3197 (63/100). This structure reflects market indecision and carries breakout potential in both directions.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How This Scenario Unfolds?
The bullish scenario is primarily triggered by a clear break above the $0.3363 resistance (strength 75/100). Once this level is surpassed, momentum increase is expected; RSI should rise above 50, MACD histogram should approach zero, and volume should see a +20% increase. Then, the intermediate $0.3197 resistance is tested, and if Supertrend turns bullish, it gains momentum toward $0.39. No close below EMA20 ($0.34) on 1D timeframe and holding MTF supports ($0.2972) are critical. Stability or recovery in Bitcoin supports this scenario. Post-breakout invalidation: close below $0.2972.
In this scenario, traders can consider long positions on a close above $0.3363, but should manage risk by placing stop-loss below $0.2972. Volume increase and RSI divergences (rising RSI despite falling prices) serve as early warning signals.
Target Levels
First target $0.39 (Supertrend resistance), followed by $0.4950 (strength score 28/100) according to Fibonacci extension levels. This level stands as a strong target on the 1W timeframe. Potential R/R ratio: Entry $0.3363, target $0.4950, stop $0.2972 yields about 1:2.5. For higher targets above $0.50, monitor closely, but remain cautious until BTC resistance ($90K+) is surpassed.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario activates with a daily close below the $0.2972 support (strength 77/100). On this breakout, MACD bearish momentum accelerates, RSI drops below 30, and a volume spike is seen. $0.2659 and $0.2364 levels are tested sequentially. Persistent close below short-term EMAs increases risk of Supertrend continuation in bearish mode. If 3D/1W supports weaken in MTF, deep correction becomes inevitable. BTC dropping below $88K triggers correlation in altcoins. Invalidation: close above $0.3363 invalidates the scenario.
In this case, short positions can be considered after $0.2972 breakout, with stop-loss above $0.3363. Watch for low-volume fake breakouts: real breakout requires +30% volume increase.
Protection Levels
First protection $0.2659, second $0.2364 (strength 63/100), final target $0.1293 (strength 22/100). This level targets 1W lows. R/R: Entry $0.2972, target $0.1293, stop $0.3363 yields around 1:1.8. Risk of liquidity hunt below $0.20, adjust position size accordingly.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Key triggers: For bull, close above $0.3363/0.39 + volume increase + RSI>50; For bear, close below $0.2972 + no MACD divergence + volume spike. Confirmation signals: doji or engulfing patterns on 4H candles, EMA crossovers. When volatility is low (low ATR), filter breakouts against false breakouts – wait for body closes instead of wick candles. Follow live data from STX Spot Analysis and STX Futures Analysis pages.
Bitcoin Correlation
STX is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC (%0.85+). BTC at $89,722 in downtrend, testing $88,322 support with -3.58% drop in 24h. BTC Supertrend bearish – caution for altcoins. If BTC breaks below $88,322, STX $0.2972 risk increases; if $90,944 resistance is surpassed, STX bull scenario strengthens. If BTC supports ($86,637, $85,017) fail to hold, STX could pull back to $0.2364. Resistances ($92,976, $98,372) may limit BTC recovery. STX traders should monitor BTC dominance (%52+): rising dominance creates selling pressure on alts.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
STX’s squeeze around $0.30 is primed for a volatility explosion. Both scenarios equally likely: watch $0.3363 breakout for bull, $0.2972 breakout for bear. Daily/4H closes are critical, technical levels take precedence without news flow. RSI divergence, volume anomalies, and BTC movements are leading indicators. Structure positions according to risk management, target R/R 1:2+. Weekly monitoring: $0.2972 hold vs breakout.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/stx-rise-or-fall-january-20-2026-scenario-analysis
