What Republicans really want Trump to do — but won't say publicly

President Donald Trump’s invasion of Iran is historically unpopular, at least when compared to other nascent wars — and his fellow Republicans may soon regret his actions.

“No US president in living memory has gone to war with less public support than Donald Trump has for the war in Iran,” wrote associate professor David Smith, a professor of politics and foreign policy at the US Studies Centre and the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney, at a recent post for the United States Studies Centre. “Even Barack Obama’s much-maligned Libyan intervention began with 60% of Americans in support in 2011. There is no poll that shows a majority of Americans supporting the Iran war, and multiple polls showing clear majorities against it. And wars usually lose public support as they go on.”

Smith cited political scientist Bruce Jentleson, who has argued public support for war in the United States depends on people believing that the goal has a legitimate purpose (such as ending aggression) rather than a more idealistic one (like regime change).

“That theory explains why the Bush administration made such an effort to claim Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and was linked to the September 11 terrorist attacks, even though ‘regime change’ was the aim of the Iraq war,” Smith wrote.

For these reasons, Smith said that the Iran war is likely to be a political liability for Trump. As early evidence of this, Smith brought up how “Tucker Carlson, the loudest critic of the Iran war on the right, immediately labelled it ‘Israel’s war’” and “Joe Rogan, an influential figure among Trump’s 2024 support base of disillusioned young men, said they felt ‘betrayed’ by the war.”

Politically, Smith predicted the worst for Trump.

“Trump’s glib dismissals of the price of oil are sounding a lot like his airy reassurances at the beginning of the pandemic,” Smith said. “Few Republicans in Congress have been prepared to stand up to Trump over the war. But as midterm elections approach, many of them will be silently praying he finds an excuse to end it as soon as possible.”

Smith is not the only person to anticipate the worst for the Iran war for Trump. Republican strategist Steve Schmidt, who advised President George W. Bush, expressed contempt for Trump’s strategizing for the Iran war.

“He wanted the Peace Prize, and when he couldn’t get it, Trump lost his mind,” Schmidt wrote for his Substack on Friday. Quoting Trump’s letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in which he said he no longer cared about peace because he seemingly could not win the Nobel Peace Prize, Schmidt noted that Trump said he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America.”

Earlier in March Schmidt argued for Substack that Trump’s Iran war is far more ill-planned than other major American wars.

“There has been no debate, no plan, and no thought given by Donald, his stooges and politicized generals about the second-and third-order effects of their decisions,” Schmidt exclaimed. “This is escalating.”

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