Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 13.5% amid US-Israeli air campaign

Fighter jets over Tehran and Bushehr caused explosions, according to Iranian media. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have risen to 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday.

These strikes are part of a US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, which has intensified. The Iranian regime fall market saw a 1.5-point increase, but the market remains skeptical about imminent regime change, with odds dropping from 20% to 13.5% over the past week.

Trading volume is at $59,602 daily, but it would take $195,747 to shift the market by five points, indicating a thick market resistant to short-term swings. The largest recent movement was a 1-point spike, showing cautious trading.

Despite the air campaign, the absence of leadership fractures or mass protests keeps regime change odds low. A YES share at 13.5¢ offers a 7.4x return if the regime falls by June 30. Significant market moves would likely need new developments like leadership instability or military setbacks.

Watch for Assembly of Experts’ actions, IRGC command changes, and shifts in US or Iranian rhetoric, as these could affect regime stability odds.

Markets Impacted

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