- Meta is developing an experimental prediction market-style app called Arena that would let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs.
- Unlike traditional platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, Arena is expected to use a video game-like points system rather than cash, though Meta has not ruled out eventually allowing real-money betting.
- The project marks a revival of Meta’s earlier Forecast initiative and comes amid surging interest in prediction markets and growing regulatory scrutiny over whether such event contracts amount to gambling or are legitimate financial instruments.
Meta (META), the parent company of Facebook, is developing a new app called “Arena” that mirrors a prediction market platform, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with the New York Times.
The product would allow users to make forecasts about future events, ranging from politics and sports to entertainment and world affairs. However, unlike traditional prediction market platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, users would likely rely on a video game-like points system instead of cash, the people said, although the company has not ruled out the eventual use of real-money betting.
The people described the product as both experimental and a top priority inside the company.
The effort comes as prediction markets have gained unprecedented popularity following Polymarket’s breakout success during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when traders came to the crypto-based platform to place bets on electoral outcomes, driving billions of dollars in trading volume and elevating prediction markets into the mainstream political conversation.
Meta had previously launched a similar product called Forecast in 2020, which encouraged users to make predictions about current events and emerging trends during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Meta ultimately took down the product in 2022.
