One Polymarket Whale Lost $11.6M Chasing World Cup Favorites

A Polymarket trader known as coldsway lost $11.6 million on 2026 FIFA World Cup bets after most of the account’s positions failed.

Polymarket Losses

Polymarket data shows the wallet posted a 26.7% win rate over the 10-day stretch, leaving the account with one of the most visible losses of the tournament so far.

The trader made $4.23 million on four winning positions but lost $15.86 million on the other 11. The largest loss came from a $4.9 million wager that Morocco would not win its Jul. 4 match, a bet that resolved against the account for a full loss.

A separate $3.1 million position against Canada also failed. Losses tied to Portugal, Belgium and Spain added to the damage, reducing the account’s balance as several favorites or consensus positions broke the wrong way.

The winning trades were smaller and more contrarian. They included a draw bet on Australia against Egypt that returned more than $1.1 million, along with a Ghana spread against Colombia that produced a similar gain.

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World Cup Bets

The losses came as World Cup markets became a major source of activity for prediction platforms, with Polymarket drawing heavy volume from football bettors during the group stage.

The pattern also reflects a broader tournament trend. Large bets on favorites have been punished when underdogs forced draws or delivered upsets, turning seemingly safe positions into total losses under market rules.

Coldsway was not the only account hit by that volatility. A pseudonymous trader known as FlickRaw lost about $4.2 million in less than a day in mid-June after two large favorite-side bets failed.

FlickRaw first placed $2.7 million on the Netherlands to beat Japan, only for a late Japanese equalizer to leave the match at 2-2. The trader then risked $1.5 million on Belgium against Egypt, which also ended in a draw.

Another upset cost Spain backers about $1 million after Cape Verde held the European champions to a scoreless draw. That result instead paid out a trader who had bet against Spain.

Coldsway’s account remains active before the knockout rounds, and several live positions could still change the final tally, but the 10-day run shows how World Cup prediction markets can punish concentrated exposure when favorites fail to win.

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