A new target is circulating in crypto circles this week, and it has traders paying attention. Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) recently posted a Kalshi forecast showing XRP could hit $1.30 before July ends.
XRP started June above $1.30 but faced immediate selling pressure. This pressure built through the month, and the asset slid alongside a broader crypto downturn. It bottomed near $1.03 before staging a sharp bounce, climbing 13% in a single day and reclaiming $1.28.
That recovery shows buyers still defend key levels even after a rough month. It also explains why the Kalshi forecast lines up with a real technical zone. XRP needs to clear $1.28 and $1.30 to confirm a shift in momentum. A confirmed close above that band opens the door to higher levels.
The White House wanted the CLARITY Act signed by July 4, but that didn’t happen. The Senate left for recess and will return on July 13. The bill currently sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants that first week back focused on the defense bill, potentially pushing a CLARITY floor vote to late July or early August.
None of that erases the upside. The bill would cement XRP’s classification as a commodity under U.S. law. That kind of clarity removes all forms of regulatory uncertainty. A vote soon after the Senate returns on July 13 could give XRP a real, fresh catalyst. Missing July 4 is a delay, not a defeat.
A reply from a community member pushed back on the Kalshi forecast. He argued that prediction markets often get it wrong, and that XRP’s price hinges more on regulatory clarity than on betting-platform forecasts. That view reinforces the bullish case rather than undercutting it.
Regulatory clarity is exactly what the CLARITY Act could deliver, and that’s the same catalyst driving the $1.30 forecast in the first place.
Prediction markets aggregate real money and real conviction, not just sentiment. A $1.3 forecast on Kalshi means participants are pricing in a meaningful bounce, not a modest drift. Paired with XRP’s June low near $1.03 and its fast recovery toward $1.28, the setup looks less like speculation and more like the market confirming a level it already respects.
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