Bitcoin price on track to hit $150,000 by year end despite Iran war, Bernstein says

Bitcoin‘s price will buck the geopolitical turmoil brought about by the US and Israel’s war with Iran and more than double by the end of the year to hit an all-time high of $150,000.

That’s the case Bernstein analysts made in a March 24 investor’s note shared with DL News. The research and brokerage firm said that the top cryptocurrency’s relative strength versus other assets, coupled with a strong base of long-term holders which includes Michael Saylor’s Strategy, is fuelling its conviction in a blow-out rally in the coming months.

“We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher,” the analysts said in the note. “We retain $150,000 as our 2026 year-end expected price for Bitcoin.”

Bernstein’s renewed conviction comes as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy plagues financial markets.

The price of oil is roughly 30% higher than before the US and Israel first struck Iran on February 28, fuelling inflation concerns among financial analysts and central banks.

Gold, typically viewed as a store of value in times of uncertainty, has fallen over 17% from its pre-war price. US stocks have also taken a broad beating.

Yet amid the chaos, Bitcoin has fared better than most other assets. It’s up almost 8% since the conflict began.

Bullish signs

Bernstein has listed three reasons for its bullish outlook.

Firstly, Michael Saylor’s Strategy keeps buying. According to Bernstein’s forecasts, the treasury firm has plenty of room to continue scooping up Bitcoin, and shows no signs of slowing.

That’s despite widespread chaos among other Bitcoin treasury firms, and shorts piling into Strategy as they attempt to profit from Bitcoin’s falling price, and the firm’s exposure to it.

Secondly, investors are continuing to buy Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Bitcoin ETFs have added $2.2 billion over the last four weeks, and have seen more long-term allocations from wealth managers and institutional funds, including pension and sovereign funds, the Bernstein analysts said.

Finally, existing long-term Bitcoin holders haven’t sold, despite a near 50% drawdown from the asset’s October all-time high.

“Bitcoin holders inactive for more than one year stand at 60% of total supply,” the Bernstein analysts said.

“This ownership structure is unique to Bitcoin signifying long term ‘believers’ who remain insensitive to Bitcoin volatility holding Bitcoin as a ‘store of value.’”

‘Weakest Bitcoin bear case in history’

Bernstein has a history of making bullish Bitcoin price predictions, but has yet to see one of them come through.

In early 2024, the firm first predicted Bitcoin would hit $150,000 by the end of 2025. It then raised that target to $200,000 in June 2024, then reaffirmed the target throughout 2025 and called it “conservative.”

In December as Bitcoin traded around $90,000, Bernstein retracted the $200,000 target and shifted to a new framework that forecast the top cryptocurrency to hit $150,000 by the end of 2026, with a potential cycle high of $200,000 in 2027.

Last month, Bernstein called the Bitcoin selloff, which saw the top cryptocurrency trade below $63,000, the “weakest bear case in history.”

Punters on Polymarket give Bitcoin a 10% chance of hitting $150,000 before the end of the year and a 25% chance that the price will drop as low as $30,000.

Tim Craig is DL News’ Edinburgh-based DeFi Correspondent. Reach out with tips at tim@dlnews.com.