Crypto Market Observation in July: Poised to Ride the Wave
Metrics Ventures' July Market Observation: A Guide to Crypto Market Secondary Funds
1/ Following the view we have held since May, the continued return of market bias has driven the price center to continue to rise. ETH has run a significant excess and has become the hottest topic of discussion in the current market. Hot spots in crypto stocks have frequently appeared, and trading volume has continued to increase.
2/ Regarding Ethereum, we believe that there is no need to pay too much attention to short-term trends before ETF staking is implemented, interest rate cuts enter the mid-term, and panic buying occurs. The short-term speculation hotspots of funds will always shift, and our view on ETH remains unchanged.
3/ Bitcoin faced new selling pressure of tens of billions of US dollars in July. However, under this rigid selling pressure, the intrinsic volatility of this asset is still less than 10%. The high level of chips locked at around 120,000 US dollars is reaffirmed, which is astonishing. In addition to proving the attributes of the asset, this kind of selling pressure will only change the graphics and structure of the final cycle, and will not change the fact of bull and bear markets. We remain very optimistic about the market outlook.
4/ The global fiscal easing cycle has begun. Trump's global dominance has laid a solid foundation for the relaxation of financial regulation of the US dollar system and the continued upward trend of the wind bias. Ride the wave, stay focused, and wait quietly for the moment of divergence when the buying spree climaxes.
Review and comments on the overall market conditions and market trends
Over the past month, the US dollar market has returned to the familiar low-volatility upward trend of the past few years. Momentum has generally focused on localized event-driven indicators, and there is not even a particularly strong correlation between sectors. However, the trends of Meta and ETH have both demonstrated unusual optimism and aggressiveness, which deserves attention. In previous monthly reports, we have repeatedly suggested that the market in Q3-Q4 of this year will be driven by the return of wind bias and the expectation of interest rate cuts. At this point, these two driving factors have entered the middle and late stages of development. We have already seen:
① Under the background of the great leader's overwhelming power, all countries except the major powers bowed down to him, and the domestic people, including the Federal Reserve Reserve, submitted to him unanimously;
② The relentless position-covering by US dollar institutions and the continued return of US dollar exceptionalism;
③ Financial regulatory relaxation is driven by the continued introduction of various bills, financial blockchainization, and the relaxation of leverage ratios;
Overall, we believe that monetary easing is at most midway through the price war, but expectations are also entering a period of extreme involution. Therefore, in the short term, a sustained negative EV strategy will be based on short-term data and technical charts. Price rotation is healthy, and the increase in trading volume is a neutral event, requiring careful analysis.
As for the RMB market, the analysis conducted at the end of last year is gradually gaining popularity. At this moment, technology (chips, AI, etc.) and inflation (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) are the best segments in MVC's eyes. Investors are welcome to inquire.
The market goes up and down, momentum comes and goes, and people's hearts are floating because of this. The chips in the old currency circle are also lost in the process. I hope that I can find the next stage top of the US dollar cycle in the next cycle with all the teachers. Ride the Wave and Have fun.
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