Wintermute enters prediction markets as liquidity provider, cites growing demand

Leading crypto liquidity provider, Wintermute has begun providing two-sided liquidity on prediction markets, the London-based algorithmic trading firm said on Friday, as event contract trading surpasses $60 billion in 2026.

The firm processes more than $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume and is now quoting continuous bid and offer prices across active event contracts on leading venues that together process more than $20 billion in monthly volume as of early 2026. Wintermute did not specify which platforms it is operating on.

On the development, Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said “For these(prediction) markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity. That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices,” he said.

Wintermute said prediction markets are moving from a “niche forecasting tool” into a broader venue for trading event risk. The firm said its liquidity provision would reduce spreads, support larger trade sizes and improve the reliability of market-implied probabilities.

The move extends Wintermute’s existing infrastructure, which already covers spot, derivatives, decentralized finance and over-the-counter crypto markets. The firm noted the overlap could accelerate integration between prediction markets and broader DeFi protocols for collateral reuse, yield strategies on locked capital and oracle feeds derived from prediction market prices.

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading prediction markets, record a notional weekly volume of around $5.8 billion across almost 400,000 active markets and 42.7 million weekly transactions, according to DeFiRate. Kalshi, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), holds 70 percent of that volume. Politics and sports dominate trading on both platforms.