June (Final) Consumer Sentiment

Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low:

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple at US-Israel-Iran war. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

The Michigan Sentiment index remains mired below February (pre-War) levels. Current conditions surprised downside, while expectations surprised upside.  We will have the Conference Board June index on the 30th.

The same essential story of low index against a recent trend gloominess makes interpretation difficult.

Interestingly, Democrats/Lean Democratic were became more upbeat than Republicans/Lean Republican for overall, and expectations.