Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Under Pressure — But Is the OpenAI Panic Overblown?

TLDR

• AI chip stocks dropped Tuesday after a WSJ report said OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets.
• Nvidia fell 3%, AMD and Oracle each dropped 4% on the news.
• OpenAI denied the report, saying the business is “firing on all cylinders.”
• Over $1 trillion in deals between OpenAI and chip/cloud firms in 2025 raised the stakes for any slowdown.
• Nvidia edged up 0.5% Wednesday as investors shifted focus to Big Tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.

Nvidia stock took a hit Tuesday after a Wall Street Journal report raised fresh doubts about growth at OpenAI, the company at the center of the AI spending boom.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The report said OpenAI missed internal targets for both revenue and user growth. The company had set a goal of 1 billion users by end of 2025 — a milestone it has not yet reached.

That was enough to spook investors. Nvidia fell around 3% on Tuesday. AMD and Oracle each dropped roughly 4%.

OpenAI pushed back hard. The company called the report “prime clickbait” and told Barron’s the business was “firing on all cylinders.” Investors weren’t fully convinced.

The sell-off makes more sense when you look at the scale of deals OpenAI has made. In 2025 alone, it signed over $1 trillion worth of computing and chip agreements — $500 billion with Nvidia, $300 billion with Oracle, and $270 billion with AMD.

If OpenAI’s revenue doesn’t grow fast enough, the company may struggle to meet those commitments. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly flagged concerns that OpenAI might not be able to “pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough.”

That’s the thread investors pulled on Tuesday.

Why the Sell-Off May Be Overdone

The current deals aren’t what’s driving chip revenue right now. In their most recent quarters, Nvidia posted 73% year-over-year revenue growth, AMD grew 34%, and Oracle came in at 22%. Those numbers aren’t coming from one customer.

There’s also a broader point worth making. OpenAI isn’t losing users to inactivity — it’s losing ground to competition. Google Gemini now has 750 million monthly active users. Microsoft Copilot has 150 million. Anthropic’s Claude is estimated at between 18 million and 30 million users.

The AI user base is still growing. It’s just spreading out across more platforms.

That matters for chip demand. More AI providers means more compute needed across the board, not less. A weaker OpenAI doesn’t mean weaker AI infrastructure spending overall.

What Comes Next

By Wednesday morning, Nvidia had recovered slightly, up around 0.5% in premarket trading to $214.08. AMD was up 2.4%, and Broadcom gained 0.6%.

The market’s attention quickly shifted to earnings. Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are all set to report Wednesday. Chip investors are watching closely for any updates on capital expenditure plans.

Raised capex guidance from any of those four companies would go a long way toward settling nerves about AI spending.

Nvidia is currently priced at around 25 times forward earnings. Oracle sits at 22 times. AMD trades at a higher multiple of 48 times forward earnings.

As of Wednesday’s premarket session, Nvidia sat at $213.48, AMD at $323.21.

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