The Week Ahead: Markets Face Rate Hike Fears, SpaceX IPO, and Key Inflation Data

TLDR

• The S&P 500 fell 2.6% last week and the Nasdaq dropped 4.7% as markets priced in a rate hike
• May CPI data drops Wednesday, with headline inflation expected at 4.2% year-over-year
• SpaceX is set to go public Friday at $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.78 trillion
• Oracle and Adobe both report earnings this week, giving a read on AI infrastructure demand
• Bitcoin finished the week around $60,000, more than 50% below its record highs

Investors are heading into a packed week with inflation data, a historic IPO, and major earnings all on the calendar. The mood on Wall Street is cautious after a brutal Friday selloff.

Markets Took a Hit Last Week

The S&P 500 closed Friday down 2.6%, ending a nine-week winning streak. The Nasdaq fell 4.7% for the week, its worst stretch in months. The Dow lost 0.6%.

The selloff was triggered by a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, nearly double the 88,000 estimate. That sent markets pricing in at least one interest rate hike before year-end.

Bitcoin also took a hit. It finished the week around $60,000, more than 50% below last year’s record highs. Rate hike fears weighed on crypto alongside stocks.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit an all-time low of 44.8 in May. Americans are worried the war with Iran will push prices higher and slow the economy.

Inflation Data Will Set the Tone

The biggest economic event this week is Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report for May.

Headline CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year in April. Economists now expect that to accelerate to 4.2% in May. The war with Iran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows. Gas prices were already up more than 28% year-over-year in April.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is expected to come in at 2.9% for May, up from 2.8% in April. That suggests oil inflation is starting to filter into other parts of the economy.

The Producer Price Index follows on Thursday. It rose 6% year-over-year in April, a sign that higher input costs are still working their way through the system.

James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, said the combination of strong growth, a tightening labor market, and sticky inflation means the Fed will likely need to adjust policy. Markets are now watching for any signal that a rate hike is coming.

SpaceX IPO and Oracle Earnings in Focus

Friday is expected to bring the largest IPO in history. SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq at $135 per share, giving it a valuation of roughly $1.78 trillion.

The company’s own projections put its total addressable market at around $28.5 trillion, with more than 90% of that tied to its AI business, which focuses on space-based data centers. Analysts at LPL Financial have warned that heavy reliance on unproven AI technology could make for a bumpy ride for new investors.

The Nasdaq has recently relaxed its index inclusion rules, which means SpaceX could be added to the Nasdaq 100 within weeks of listing. That would force index fund managers to buy shares automatically.

On Wednesday, Oracle reports its fiscal fourth quarter earnings. The stock is up 12% year to date. Analysts expect AI demand to keep cloud revenue growing. Oracle has been one of the largest issuers of corporate debt in its sector, with the five major hyperscalers projected to issue $175 billion in bonds in 2026.

Adobe reports on Thursday.

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