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President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the U.S and Iran had reached a peace deal and will sign it on June 19.
Among other conditions, the agreement sees the removal of the U.S. naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil fell 5% to around $80 per barrel. It is now down roughly 33% from its early March high of $120.
Equity markets rose on the news. Indexes advanced worldwide, except in Tel Aviv, and U.S. stocks rallied in pre-market trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, added 2% in pre-market trading.
Bitcoin BTC$66,405.83 and precious metals also gained. The largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $66,000, and was recently 2.7% higher over 24 hours, with most of the advance occurring on Sunday shortly after Trump's announcement. Gold has risen nearly 3% over 24 hours to trade above $4,330 per ounce.
This extended ceasefire will remain in place for another 60 days, while talks on a final deal proceed. It's worth keeping in mind the numerous shifts in negotiations over recent months, including ceasefires, breakdowns and renewed agreements, which suggest the path to a lasting resolution is unlikely to be straightforward
Keep in mind too, that on June 17, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presides over his first FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing a 97% probability the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
Following the sharp decline in oil prices, investors are no longer pricing in any interest-rate increases this year. Expectations for the next 25 basis-point increase have been pushed back to January 2027. That may change if the situation in the Middle East becomes murkier. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- For real this time? U.S., Iran peace deal at hand (CNBC): The U.S. and Iran have gotten the furthest yet in their efforts to end their war, with President Donald Trump saying that Washington and Tehran have agreed on a peace deal to be signed on June 19. The deal will see the Strait of Hormuz opened and the U.S. naval blockade lifted.
- Oil prices hit three-month lows on US-Iran agreement (CNN): Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 5% to $82.91 a barrel shortly after 5 a.m. ET, having settled Friday at its lowest level since March 5, the first week of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran. WTI crude also fell to its lowest since early March.
- Bitcoin traders have a reason to watch Tuesday's BOJ rate decision. Yen shorts are at a nine-year high (CoinDesk): A large build-up of speculative short positions in the yen raises the risk of a sharp short squeeze if the Bank of Japan signals more aggressive tightening, potentially unwinding yen-funded carry trades that support risk assets.
- Here's what SpaceX's IPO means for its $1.3 billion bitcoin reserve (CoinDesk): The largest company on public markets now holds bitcoin as a treasury reserve, not as a business model. Its first earnings cycles will test which version of corporate crypto survives a bear market.
Today’s signal
(TradingView)
The chart shows bitcoin's weekly price change along with its Fibonnaci levels and relative strength index (RSI).
The price rebounded from a support level of $60,000 — set at the 0.618 Fibonnaci retracement — but even at its current $65,600 remains in a broader downtrend described by a series of lower highs.
The RSI is weak at 37 and a weekly close above $66,000 would signal a tentative reclaim. Failure to reach that level, however, still leaves $60,000 exposed. If it does make the break, the next resistance level is positioned at $68,900, and then $80,000-$82,500.
