U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Sends American, United, Delta and Southwest Airlines Stocks Higher

TLDR

• American, United, Delta, and Southwest Airlines rose 3%–4% overnight after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a peace framework
• The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen after more than 16 weeks of closure, easing oil supply concerns
• Brent crude fell 4.6% to around $83.30 a barrel following the deal announcement
• IATA had warned airline fuel costs could hit $350 billion in 2026, up from $252 billion the year before
• Tech stocks and mining companies outperformed airlines in pre-market trading despite airlines being direct beneficiaries

Airline stocks jumped overnight after the U.S. and Iran reached a peace framework, raising expectations that fuel costs could finally start to ease for an industry that has struggled through most of 2026.

American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines all gained between 3% and 4% ahead of Monday’s open. The move followed an announcement from President Donald Trump that the U.S. naval blockade would be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to shipping.

American Airlines Group Inc., AAL

The strait had been closed for more than 16 weeks due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. It is one of the world’s most important routes for oil shipments, and its closure pushed fuel prices sharply higher throughout the year.

Brent crude futures fell 4.6% to around $83.30 a barrel following the news. West Texas Intermediate futures also dropped. For airlines, fuel is one of the single largest operating costs, so any sustained decline in oil prices would directly improve margins.

A Tough Year for Airline Profits

The airline industry entered 2026 with strong passenger demand but has been squeezed hard by rising fuel prices. IATA, the global airline trade body, recently cut its profit outlook for the sector. It now estimates fuel costs will reach around $350 billion this year, up from $252 billion in 2025. That would account for nearly one-third of total industry expenses.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said airlines have been raising ticket prices and improving efficiency to try to offset higher costs, but those efforts will not be enough to match last year’s profit levels. Overall industry revenue is still expected to climb to $1.17 trillion in 2026.

Several major U.S. carriers have already revised their financial forecasts lower. United Airlines cut its full-year earnings outlook and now expects adjusted earnings of $7 to $11 per share, down from a previous range of $12 to $14. American Airlines went further, cutting its 2026 earnings forecast in April and warning it could end the year with a loss.

Southwest and Delta have kept their targets in place for now, but both said hitting those numbers would depend on where fuel costs and revenues land.

Bigger Movers Elsewhere

Despite airlines being among the clearest potential winners from the deal, they were not the top performers in pre-market trading. Tech stocks including Micron, Super Micro Computer, Western Digital, and Sandisk all outperformed. Mining company Newmont also rose as gold prices jumped close to 3%.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said investors moved quickly to shift out of oil, defense, and telecom stocks and into higher-risk, economically sensitive sectors. Cruise operators including Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line each rose between 3% and 4%.

The U.S. Global JETS ETF, which tracks airline stocks, was already up 20% since the start of April before Monday’s move. United, Delta, and Southwest are each up between 10% and 19% so far this year. American Airlines has slipped just over 2%.

If the interim deal leads to a permanent peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz stays open, analysts say the outlook for airline stocks could improve further in the second half of 2026.

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