Gold Price Prediction: Analysts Say a Drop to $3,900 Could Come Before the Next Rally

Spot gold closed last week at $4,194.80 per ounce on Friday, June 12, down roughly 20% from its January lifetime high of $5,595. The market then jumped over 2.3% on Monday morning, June 15, to $4,316.03 per ounce, after news of a preliminary US-Iran agreement.

Prices had chopped between $4,100 and $4,250 before the weekend break, but that sluggishness ended on Monday. Spot gold price jumped by $96 per ounce to cross the $4,300 structural barrier, and US gold futures for August delivery jumped 2.3% to hit $4,337.20 per ounce. 

US and Iranian officials announced a preliminary framework agreement to end the war, lift the US embargo, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This triggered a risk-on rally across global asset classes, though analysts are now warning that a drop could come before the next real move higher.

Analyst Views: Gold Price Final Dip Toward $3,900 Before a Recovery

The Economic Office posted a detailed analysis of the gold price on Monday. Their main scenario points to the possibility of one final dip toward the $3,900 area before any sustained recovery. 

They note that $4,589 is the key resistance level to watch, and the $4,099 area has become a reaction zone after the breakout. The analyst expects a pullback toward $3,900 support first, followed by a strong recovery back toward the $4,589 resistance level.

Another analyst, Allie, warned traders not to blindly chase the market higher. Allie posted that Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the analyst believes the gold price will continue to correct. 

The current strategy shared by Allie is to sell at higher levels, specifically trying to sell in the $4,340 to $4,350 range. These two independent analyses both point to the same conclusion: a pullback is likely before any sustainable rally.

News Pushing the Gold Price Today

The gold price jumped by $101.80 per ounce in a single session after a tentative US-Iran deal opened the Strait of Hormuz. This move reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had been holding the gold price back. Crude oil fell 3.90% to $84.29 per barrel, and lower oil prices cooled fears of structural inflation, pushing expectations toward looser global monetary policies.

The US Dollar Index slipped by 0.82% to a 10-day low of 99.50. A cheaper dollar lowers the cost barrier for foreign buyers, fueling physical spot demand for the gold price. Institutional demand remains strong, with the World Gold Council verifying that global central banks absorbed 244 net tonnes of gold in Q1 alone, establishing a firm historical floor for the metal.

ETF liquidations continue to put pressure on the gold price. Net holdings for the world’s largest fund, SPDR Gold Trust, contracted by 0.3% to 923.89 tonnes. ANZ lowered its year-end gold price target by $400 to $5,200 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs kept a target of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026. The $4,000 level is the absolute structural base, and a break below that round number risks a rapid technical drop toward $3,500.

Related Gold News: Why Silver and Gold Price Crashes Shouldn’t Worry Holders, Peter Schiff Weighs In

Where Could the Gold Price Go Next Based on Our Analysis

The gold price is at a decision point after the move above $4,300. The pump was real, but the momentum has already started to cool. 

The gold price needs to hold above $4,099 to keep the bullish structure intact. A break below that level would open the door to a test of $3,900, just as the Economic Office predicted.

The resistance at $4,589 is the key level for any recovery. The gold price would need to break above $4,500 first, then $4,589, to confirm that the dip is over. Without a clean break, sellers could push the gold price back toward $4,000 or lower. 

The most likely path over the next few weeks is a dip toward $3,900, followed by a slow grind back toward $4,589. That matches both the technical setup and the analyst consensus we reviewed today.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will gold hit $10,000

The Sharia Advisory Council branch of Malaysia’s security commission has advised that trading and investing in cryptocurrencies is permissible. This means that digital currencies can also be used to make zakat payments.

Will gold hit $6,000 in 2026

Some analysts believe gold could reach $6,000 in 2026 if central bank buying remains strong and global economic uncertainty persists. Several forecasts already place gold near that level by late 2026 or early 2027.

What will gold be worth by 2030

Gold price forecasts for 2030 vary widely, with estimates ranging from $7,000 to $10,000 per ounce. The final outcome will depend on inflation trends, interest rates, central bank purchases, and global economic conditions.