ASML Could Soar Higher in 12 Months and Here’s Why We’d Buy It

The post ASML Could Soar Higher in 12 Months and Here’s Why We’d Buy It appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) has been one of 2026’s defining AI infrastructure trades, with the Dutch lithography monopolist riding a record order book, a raised full-year guide, and renewed mega-cap enthusiasm to fresh highs. After a 74.81% year-to-date run, the question is whether the rally still has room.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for ASML is $1,996.77 over the next 12 months. With shares last trading at $1,863.55, that implies roughly 7.1% upside. The recommendation is buy at 90% confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Musk Endorsement, A Record Backlog, And A $700B Milestone

ASML has gained 13.51% in the past week and 17.83% in the past month, putting shares roughly 11% below the 52-week high of $1,903.50. The stock recently became the first European company to cross $700 billion in market cap, helped by Elon Musk calling ASML “arguably the greatest company in Europe” and confirming it as a critical supplier to the $55 billion SpaceX-Tesla Terafab project.

The fundamentals back the move. Q1 2026 delivered EPS of $8.4349 on revenue of $10.34 billion, with gross margin at 53%. Management raised the full-year 2026 outlook to €36 billion to €40 billion, and the year-end 2025 backlog stood at a record $45.06 billion.

Why Bulls See A Breakout Past $2,200

The bull case is straightforward: AI capex is structurally tight, and ASML is the chokepoint. CEO Christophe Fouquet said “demand for chips is outpacing supply” and that customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond. Q4 2025 net bookings hit $15.28 billion, with EUV alone at $8.60 billion.

Sell-side is leaning in. BofA Securities reiterated Buy with a $2,268 target, citing a potential 2030 path to €73 billion in sales and over €90 in EPS. JP Morgan upgraded out-year estimates after concluding ASML can ship more than 110 low-NA EUV tools annually, well above the prior 90-unit ceiling. Our bull-case scenario points to $2,081.87 within 12 months.

The Risks Worth Watching

The bear case starts with valuation. ASML trades at a trailing P/E of 62x and forward P/E of 51x. Morningstar moved to Sell in late May citing overvaluation.

Export controls remain the wildcard: management explicitly built the wide 2026 guide bandwidth to accommodate potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls, and China revenue is expected to decline significantly in 2026.

Counterfactually, bears would note Q1 free cash flow was negative $3.08 billion, but that reflects working capital timing on EUV shipments rather than business deterioration. Our bear-case 12-month scenario sits at $1,581.31.

ASML Price Prediction 2026-2030

My verdict is buy at 90% confidence, with a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,996.77. The decisive factor is the backlog: $45 billion of contracted demand, a 19% earnings growth rate, and an unrivaled monopoly position justify the premium multiple.

The setup favors investors who can stomach a 10-15% drawdown on export-control headlines. The thesis weakens if the AI capex cycle peaks in 2027 and EUV pricing power compresses.

These projections assume ASML continues executing toward its €44-60 billion 2030 revenue opportunity at 56-60% gross margins. Significant upside could emerge from accelerated High-NA EUV adoption, while a broad China export ban or AI capex pause would drive material downside.

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