Samsung Stock: Bernstein Sees HBM4 Ramp in May Export Data – Here’s What that Means

TLDR

• SK Hynix briefly overtook Samsung Electronics as South Korea’s most valuable company on Monday, with a market cap of ~$1.35 trillion vs Samsung’s ~$1.35 trillion
• Samsung’s HBM exports from South Chungcheong Province rose 79% month-over-month in May, according to Bernstein analysis
• Bernstein’s model forecasts Samsung’s Q2 2026 HBM revenue will grow 58% quarter-over-quarter
• Samsung’s “value per weight” metric rose 30% in May, which Bernstein says likely reflects a HBM4 product ramp
• SK Hynix stock has surged more than 340% this year, outpacing Samsung’s 200% gain

Samsung Electronics held the title of South Korea’s most valuable company for 26 years — until Monday.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., SMSD.L

SK Hynix briefly overtook Samsung in market cap, trading up 5.7% to reach 2,082.5 trillion won ($1.35 trillion). Samsung edged just behind at 2,081.3 trillion won, up 0.4% on the day.

The gap between the two has been widening all year. SK Hynix is up more than 340% in 2026. Samsung has gained around 200% — impressive, but it’s a different race at this point.

The shift comes as both companies ride a wave of AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory chips. But the market is increasingly rewarding SK Hynix for its lead in HBM supply to AI chip customers.

On the Samsung side, there are early signs the gap may start to close. Bernstein analyzed South Korean export data and found Samsung’s HBM shipments out of South Chungcheong Province — where it packages HBM products — jumped 79% month-over-month in May, and were up 55% versus February.

Samsung’s HBM4 Ramp

That surge in Samsung’s export figures isn’t just about volume. Bernstein tracks a “value per weight” metric as a rough indicator of HBM pricing trends. Samsung’s figure rose 30% in May while SK Hynix’s stayed flat.

Bernstein says that likely points to Samsung ramping HBM4 — its next-generation product — rather than a broad price move across all HBM. HBM4 commands higher prices, so a mix shift toward it would push that metric up.

Overall HBM exports from South Korea hit a record high in May, up 13% month-over-month and 15% from February.

Bernstein’s model now forecasts Samsung’s Q2 2026 HBM revenue will rise 58% quarter-over-quarter. That’s a strong number, though the firm notes it still trails its own internal estimate — likely due to delays tied to the Nvidia Rubin platform.

SK Hynix Still Leads, But Samsung Is Moving

SK Hynix’s export data told a different story for May. Shipments from North Chungcheong and Icheon fell 9% from April and were down 3% versus February. Bernstein’s model still projects 25% quarter-over-quarter HBM revenue growth for SK Hynix in Q2, though slightly below the firm’s forecast.

SK Hynix joined Samsung and Micron in crossing the $1 trillion market cap milestone in May, driven by AI demand.

HBM pricing held steady through May despite volatility in conventional memory prices, which surged during the same period. HBM value per weight stayed range-bound, particularly for SK Hynix.

Samsung’s stock traded up 0.14% on Monday. Micron (MU) rose 8.70% in the same session.

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