Could Commercially Useful Quantum Computers Really Be 5-7 Years Away?

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It’s hard to know what to make of quantum computers. On the one hand, it may very well be like where AI was five or seven years ago. And, if that’s the case, perhaps the quantum plays, many of which have fallen out of favor in recent quarters, might be worth more attention than some of the red-hot semiconductor plays, even as things move a bit faster and hyperscalers spend even more aggressively to pull ahead in this AI revolution.

Although only time will tell when “commercially useful” quantum computers will kick off a similar boom, it’s not hard to imagine that the quantum innovators look to take more of an AI-like ascent.

Sure, we’ve heard a lot about quantum strategies, the risk of Q-Day, quantum encryption, and all the sort. But what about when quantum becomes the next AI? And what would a climate be like where commercially useful and monetizable quantum computers hit the market and perhaps change the landscape in an AI-esque manner?

This pundit sounded pretty bullish on the future of quantum computing. Early evidence backs him up

Though nobody has a crystal ball, I do think that one pundit in Amazon‘s (NASDAQ:AMZN) AI chief, Peter DeSantis, is more than worth listening to on the matter. The man recently had a sit-down with CNBC to share his thoughts. He envisions “commercially useful, small-scale quantum computers” in a five to seven-year timeframe.

Given the window that some other pundits have pointed to, I’d argue that’s a realistic timeline. And while it’s a tad unreal to envision such tech coming into its own as soon as 2031, I do think that if all goes well and firms continue pouring ample resources into advancing the effort, that anything is possible.

Given the quantum timelines of firms like Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), which is gaining speed with its Quantum AI division, I think the timeline is right on schedule.

Of course, complex hurdles could stand in the way as firms look to innovate in a way that physics allows. But, at the same time, as AI moves down an exponential curve, perhaps something like useful quantum computers could be coming a bit sooner than anticipated?

Google looks like a major frontier innovator in quantum

Indeed, Google seems to be moving at a pace where it’s able to beat its own milestones faster. In short, there are far too many variables for sure, as the biggest, brightest teams look to solve error correction while looking to go down the route of a quantum-classical hybrid architectural approach.

Even Nvidia‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang has sounded more upbeat about the rise of truly useful quantum computers. Nvidia has its own NVQLink product and a whole slate of software offerings to enable the next wave of disruptive tech.

Given Mr. DeSantis’ very impressive track record, I wouldn’t doubt his prediction. Beyond that, he sees something similar to Moore’s Law whereby “they’re going to get bigger and bigger every year, and they’re going to be able to tackle more and more interesting problems.”

Whether it’s Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, or another firm that has the keys to the quantum leap, though, remains the big question. In my view, Google’s Willow chip is already doing amazing things behind the scenes. But, like AI, the biggest concern is the risks posed by the rise of new technologies.

The bottom line

The “store now, decrypt later” threat, I think, calls for serious action to be ready for a quantum revolution sooner rather than later. Whether it’s 15 years or 5 years before quantum takes off, I do think that those with long-term time horizons will stand to do very well with the Mag Seven companies as they bet big on AI and, after that, probably do the same thing with the field of quantum.

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