Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/23/26 – Reality Check

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“The most effective leader is the one who satisfies the psychological needs of his followers.” – David Ogilvy

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Make sure to check out Paul Hickey on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street at 10 AM today.

We’re witnessing a global sell-off in equities as S&P 500 futures are down over 1% while the Nasdaq stares at a decline of more than 2.5%. The weakness comes as crude oil prices fall to the lowest levels in months and treasury yields are lower, two trends that would normally be viewed as positive for stocks! Asian stocks were sharply lower overnight, and that weakness flowed through into Europe as well, as the STOXX 600 falls over 1%. Flash PMI readings released this morning showed positive moves in the Manufacturing sector but weakness in the Services sector.

Tech is the main driver of the weakness, though. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is down less than 0.5%, and most other sectors are faring much better than tech this morning. While Technology is down over 3%, Financials is barely lower, and Health Care is up in the pre-market. This divergence is a reversal of the quarter-to-date trend, where Technology was the only sector outperforming the market in Q2.  That’s unsustainable.

The carnage in US equity futures started overnight in South Korea, where the KOSPI declined 9.99% for its largest daily decline since… March 4th. Usually, 5%+ declines for a major global index are a big deal, but for the KOSPI, last night’s was the third this month! And if you think that’s volatile, in March there were four 5%+ daily moves.

For the KOSPI, today’s 10% decline shows up as a large red candle in the chart, but like the prior two periods of decline the index has had since April, it remains nearly 10% above its 50-day moving average and 58% above its 200-DMA. So, by any traditional or objective measure, it is still overbought.

Semiconductor stocks have been the hottest sector of the market during Q2, and as of yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) was up over 90%. 90%! Today, the index is on pace to trade down about 6%, which wouldn’t even be the worst day this month. That was on 6/5 when it fell over 10%. Even after a decline of 6%, though, the SOX would be 18.9% above its 50-DMA and 57.9 above its 200-DMA. Like the KOSPI, still overbought.

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