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Traders may want to keep an eye on LTC$41.95 in the coming weeks and months. One of the earliest altcoins, LTC may see bullish price action, potentially outperforming the broader market, including bitcoin BTC$62,663.99.
Here's why.
Litecoin's fourth reward halving is due around July 27, 2027 when the payment will drop by 50% to 3.125 LTC. Litecoin has a peculiar tendency to bottom out anywhere between six to 12 months before the event.
The evidence is there.
LTC bottomed in late June 2022 at around $40, just over a year before the third halving on Aug. 2, 2023. In the intervening period, it rallied to as high as $114 by July 2023, only to pull back to $80 in the lead-up to the event. In November 2022, the month that crypto exchange FTX collapsed and pulled down the wider market, litecoin actually rose more than 40%.
A similar pattern played out before the first two halvings. In each case, LTC bottomed out months beforehand, rallied and then dropped back a bit into the event. (Check the Daily Signal)
If history holds true, that means litecoin could find a bottom any time now.
The token is also in the news for its DeFi ambitions. Since a testnet launch in April, LitVM, Litecoin's first EVM-compatible virtual machine, has processed over 63 million transactions. More than 1.5 million wallets have been created in the past two weeks alone, pushing the total to over 4.4 million.
Still, LTC looked weak, teetering close to $40, the 2022 bear market low. It might be the only prominent decade-old coin trading near its previous bear market low, as BTC and ETH hover well above their 2022 levels.
That low could give way if risk-off sentiment in equities and currency markets worsens, and if Thursday's U.S. core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, shows sticky price pressures in the economy, potentially sending bitcoin below $60,000. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- The Runes revival: Bitcoin traffic hits a two-year high as transactions blast past 820,000 (CoinDesk): The number of Bitcoin transactions climbed above 820,000 per day, the highest since April 23, 2024, despite the asset's price remaining deep in a bear market.
- World shares are mixed after a Big Tech sell-off (AP): Stocks were mixed worldwide Wednesday following a selloff in big technology companies from Asia to Wall Street. U.S. stock index futures also traded mixed.
- Oil extends slide to more than 1% on expectations of smoother crude flows via Hormuz (Reuters): Brent crude futures stood at $75.71 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate slipped to $72.13 on signs that more oil tankers are set to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Trump lands in Senate's crosshairs over $500 million UAE investment in his crypto venture (CoinDesk): Senate Democrats called for hearings into UAE officials' investments in President Donald Trump's family crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, and subsequent decisions by the Trump administration that seemingly favored the Gulf country.
Today’s signal
Litecoin's price swings in candlestick format from 2015 to 2023. (TradingView)
The chart shows litecoin's weekly price chart in candlestick format since late 2014.
The pattern is clear: LTC bottoms out and rallies months before each 50% cut in reward, with the time between the bottom and the halving widening with each cycle.
The first such event occurred in August 2015, with prices bottoming about four months before. The next bear-market bottom hit in December 2018, almost nine months ahead of the August 2019 halving. The June 2022 bottom presaged the third halving in August 2023 by nearly 14 months.
Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen. The next halving is now just 13 months away.
