Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Top Chinese Miner Says $42K Bottom Is Coming — Here’s the Model Behind It

TLDR

• Prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer predicts BTC’s bear-market bottom between October and December 2026
• His target price range is $42,000 to $44,000, based on a long-term cycle model
• The forecast uses Strategy’s mNAV, which recently dropped to 0.72, near levels seen in May 2022
• In the last cycle, mNAV bottomed six months before Bitcoin hit its price low of $15,476
• Jiang says he has already sold spot holdings and taken short positions ahead of the projected bottom

Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s most well-known Bitcoin miners, has put out a cycle-based forecast placing Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom between October and December 2026. He expects BTC to bottom somewhere in the $42,000 to $44,000 range.

The forecast is built around Strategy’s mNAV, or market net asset value. This metric compares Strategy’s stock price to the Bitcoin value backing each share.

A reading above 1.0 means investors are paying a premium for the stock. A reading below 1.0 suggests demand for the stock is weak relative to its Bitcoin holdings.

Jiang noted that Strategy’s mNAV recently dropped to 0.72. He said that level is close to the 0.7 reading seen on May 11, 2022, near the start of the last major cycle shift.

How the Last Cycle Shaped the Forecast

In the previous cycle, Strategy’s mNAV bottomed in May 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $31,017. Bitcoin then hit its full cycle low of $15,476 on November 21, 2022 — roughly six months later.

Jiang is applying that same lag to the current cycle. If mNAV is bottoming now, his model points to around October 31, 2026, as a likely date for the BTC price low, with a target near $44,016.

He was upfront that the model’s timing record is stronger than its price accuracy. His range of $42,000 to $44,000 reflects that uncertainty.

Jiang also mentioned the de-anchoring of STRC and said the current mNAV setup could support long MSTR and short BTC arbitrage trades for some participants. He framed this as a comment on market structure, not a bullish Bitcoin call.

Where Jiang Stands Personally

In a post on X, Jiang said he has already sold his spot Bitcoin holdings and taken short positions for medium to short-term trades. He added that he plans to start buying spot again when prices approach the projected bottom zone.

The post came as Bitcoin faced fresh selling pressure in June, with BTC falling below $60,000 and triggering over $850 million in liquidations across the market.

Strategy shares also dropped sharply during that selloff as investors pulled back from crypto-linked equities.

Jiang’s specific model date is October 31, 2026, with a projected BTC price near $44,016 at that point.

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