Analyst Says This XRP Indicator Has Never Failed

Crypto analyst ChartNerd has returned with a fresh assessment of XRP’s market structure, identifying a long-term indicator that has consistently delivered reliable signals throughout the asset’s history.

In a recent video shared alongside an X post, ChartNerd examined XRP’s position within the Gaussian Channel, a technical indicator he believes has accurately reflected major market cycles since the cryptocurrency’s inception.

The analyst explained that his previous update came roughly a month earlier, when XRP was trading near $1.35 and holding above the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel. Since then, however, XRP has moved below that level, a development he considers significant based on historical price behavior.

According to ChartNerd, every major XRP cycle has followed a similar sequence after a market peak. The asset first returns to the upper regression band, experiences a relief rally, and then eventually declines toward the middle regression band.

Historical Data Shows a Repeating Pattern

To support his view, ChartNerd pointed to several previous market cycles. He noted that after XRP touched the upper regression band in 2019, the asset rallied approximately 85% before falling toward the middle band. A similar pattern appeared following the 2021 cycle peak, when XRP gained around 68% after touching the upper band before dropping lower.

The analyst also highlighted data dating back to 2014. In that cycle, XRP reportedly rallied more than 100% after contacting the upper regression band but eventually returned to the middle portion of the Gaussian Channel.

Based on these observations, ChartNerd explained that the current cycle is following a familiar path. He noted that XRP rebounded roughly 48% after touching the upper regression band this year, rising from around $1.09 to approximately $1.60. However, he believes the asset is now beginning a move toward the channel’s middle band.

While ChartNerd said the middle regression band sits near $0.84, he stressed that the level will continue to change as the indicator evolves.

Analyst Maintains 70–90 Cent Target Range

While acknowledging that history does not guarantee future results, ChartNerd maintained that every previous cycle eventually saw XRP revisit or even move below the middle regression band after losing the upper band.

For that reason, he continues to view the 70 Cent to 90 Cent level as a realistic downside target. He emphasized that even if the middle band rises toward 90 cents in the coming months, previous cycles suggest XRP could still temporarily trade below it before establishing a durable bottom.

ChartNerd also argued that 2026 resembles prior “midterm years” in XRP’s market history, which he described as periods that have typically coincided with bear markets and prolonged consolidation phases. While he believes June could potentially mark a local or cycle low, he expects any recovery to be gradual rather than immediate.

Looking ahead, the analyst suggested that XRP may spend the remainder of the year building a base through extended accumulation, similar to previous post-bear-market periods. He added that meaningful relief rallies could emerge later in the year, particularly around August or September. However, he maintained that the broader historical data still support his expectation of a deeper correction before a sustained recovery begins.

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