CLARITY Act Faces Tougher Odds as Galaxy Research Downgrades 2026 Passage to 50%

TLDR

• Analyst Alex Thorn at Galaxy Research lowered the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage probability from 60% to 50%
• The crypto bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 but lacks a scheduled floor vote
• Limited Senate floor time remains available before the late July August recess begins
• Unresolved ethics requirements from Senate Democrats continue to stall progress
• Without a concrete schedule by early July, passage may delay until post-September

The CLARITY Act, a cryptocurrency market structure bill, secured bipartisan approval from the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote. Yet despite this legislative advancement, Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research has reduced his probability estimate for the bill’s 2026 enactment to 50%, down from the previous 60% projection made just weeks earlier.

Currently positioned at number 423 on the Senate’s legislative calendar, the bill awaits scheduling for floor consideration.

The primary obstacle is the ticking clock. With the Senate’s August recess approaching at July’s end, only a handful of productive legislative weeks remain on the schedule.

Competing Priorities Consume Senate Session Time

Recent Senate proceedings lost an entire week to disputes surrounding an anti-weaponization funding measure. Additionally, efforts to reauthorize Section 702 of FISA collapsed when a procedural vote failed 47-52.

Section 702’s authorization expires June 12. Consequently, much of the upcoming week’s available floor time will address that urgent matter rather than cryptocurrency legislation.

While each individual delay appears minor, collectively they erode the already-limited window the CLARITY Act requires for passage.

For successful passage, Senate Majority Leader John Thune must allocate floor time during July. The legislation still requires floor debate, an amendment process, and reconciliation with corresponding Senate Agriculture Committee language before any House consideration can begin.

This represents a substantial procedural checklist with minimal calendar availability to accomplish it.

Democratic Support Remains Uncertain

Beyond scheduling challenges, a critical substantive obstacle persists. Senator Ruben Gallego and fellow Senate Democrats have established ethics provisions as mandatory requirements for their support. These provisions remain unaddressed after the committee deferred resolution to floor consideration.

The legislation requires a minimum of 60 votes for advancement. Galaxy Research anticipates two Republican opposition votes from Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, both of whom opposed last year’s GENIUS Act.

This vote arithmetic provides Thune limited incentive to schedule floor time without confirmed Democratic support.

Potential Factors That Could Improve Prospects

Thorn indicated he would increase his probability assessment if Thune publicly commits to scheduling floor time in early-to-mid July, and if the ethics and illicit finance concerns are demonstrably resolved with confirmed support from nine or more Democratic senators.

Announcement that the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions have been consolidated into a unified legislative package would also boost prospects.

Absent these developments within the next two to three weeks, Galaxy Research suggests the realistic timeline shifts to September. However, autumn legislative action encounters midterm election pressures, when floor availability becomes scarce and members concentrate on campaign activities.

Presently, Galaxy Research maintains the CLARITY Act is more likely than not to pass in 2026, though the probability margin continues narrowing.

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