For Good’ Works Its Magic To Rule Weekend Box Office

Director John M. Chu’s already-a-blockbuster sequel Wicked: For Good flies into cinemas to work its magic and rule the weekend box office ahead of Thanksgiving, and theaters couldn’t be happier.

Wicked: For Good – By the Numbers

Domestic ticket sales are massive, with about $31 million in early preview screenings for a nearly $70 million Friday gross. Wicked: For Good is now on pace for $155-160 million stateside, and another $70-75 million international. That should help Universal’s glorious musical toward at least $225 million worldwide, and possibly as high as $235-240 million.

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But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Even a much lower-end $150 million domestic and $65 million muted overseas debut would still put Wicked: For Good north of $215 million. Meaning Wicked: For Good is destined to have the biggest box office debut of any Broadway musical adaptation in cinema history.

If that sounds presumptuous for a Saturday morning estimate, consider that Wicked: For Good has by now probably already topped $100 million in total global ticket sales, and it’s still early. With most of Saturday and all of Sunday still to come, there’s no outcome that sees For Good finish with less than a $200 million worldwide cume.

The first Wicked enjoyed a strong second weekend and a mindblowing 4+x final multiplier (the total final global box office divided by the total opening global box office), so if the sequel scores a similar multiplier then on the lowest end it would still top $800 million, and on the higher end it would top $1 billion. But notice, even a more modest 3x final multiplier would still send Wicked: For Good toward a $675 million final tally.

All of this is great news for the film, which should have no trouble topping $700 million and probably winding up north of $800 million. I will wait to see weekday figures and Thanksgiving weekend’s numbers before I commit toward higher or lower end outcomes. Every outcome, though, looks to be a blockbuster win.

There won’t be much room for any other films to pull down much business, frankly, and I’ll just add a note here that if you’re not planning to watch Wicked: For Good then don’t forget about The Running Man, an unfortunately overlooked but fantastic movie most of you would probably love if you gave it a watch.

Wicked: For Good – The Review

Wicked: For Good picks up the story in the middle, and the second half is inherently darker and more downbeat. We’re no longer being introduced to these characters, and now we have an idea of where it’s all going to lead, if we’ve seen 1939’s The Wizard of Oz adaptation.

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This creates certain difficulties for the filmmakers, because you don’t want to include a recap at the start of your movie, but on the other hand, anyone who hasn’t seen the first film is gonna be lost. Additionally, picking up in the middle of the movie means you’re picking up in the middle of the character arcs, so if it’s been a while since you saw the first film, then this can create additional disconnect between the audience and the thematic heart of the film if you were struggling to keep up with where in their journey and evolution, these characters are in the second half.

Overcoming this requires a strong centering of the performances and characters in every scene, to maintain that connection to the audience and keep them oriented to the arcs and journeys. Which is where the greatest strengths of Wicked: For Good come in and save the day.

In case you didn’t know, the songs are recorded live. Yes, the filmmaker’s captured the performances and the singing live in camera. They recorded them several times, and then had to splice them together. And this is done without the visual effects, mind you, so the performances and directing and editing, must all elevate those characters and songs without any of the bells and whistles around it to either enhance or distract.

And that’s why the performances and music in the Wicked films is so impressive, and why even in the big numbers with lots of dancing and amazing VFX eye-candy are still anchored by tremendous performances and vocals. Making the movie, with all of its beautiful sets and costumes, with all of its spectacular production values, ultimately came down to the performers and their voices centered in every moment.

That’s the secret ingredient that makes these Wicked films work, and of course it’s not so secret to those who know in love the story, the play, and the films.

Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande carry the emotional and redemptive weight of Wicked and Wicked: For Good entirely on their shoulders, a collaborative united effort reflecting the story’s own themes and arcs in many ways (the good ones), knowing it was often a grueling exhausting production not only physically but also mentally and emotionally. Being able to carry that, and carry it into the performances in ways that accentuate and breathe additional life into their songs and performances. Even when they aren’t on screen together, you feel the presence of whomever is missing — either positively or negatively, as the story needs.

Wicked: For Good is about half an hour shorter than the first movie, but it does have quite a lot of plot. More than the first film, I dare say, when thinking about the specifics of what really happens and the revelations and character arcs. Of course, Wicked’s story also incorporates elements of 1939’s Wizard of Oz film and the majority of those story elements and beats are all here, too.

Which is a lot, let’s be honest. Many of those things serve as backdrop and motivation for the main story in Wicked: For Good, but it is still quite a bit to pack into roughly 2 hours and five minutes, give or take (the credits are very long, which extends the total runtime more than usual). Credit to the filmmakers, then, that they managed to keep focus on the main characters and their arcs even as the audience will inevitably start to pick up on the fact that the familiar The Wizard of Oz story is now playing out. By keeping those elements as much of a backdrop as possible, and by maintaining the momentum of the main story and arcs through the escalating subplot until the two collide at the climax, Wicked: For Good avoids being overtaken by the more familiar children’s story and it’s popular heroes.

Indeed, while I will avoid spoilers, I will note how this story handles the supposed heroes of the original The Wizard of Oz tale is unique and specifically feeds the story in arcs of Wicked’s main characters. That’s not an easy feat to pull off, and while I personally think the film had earned leeway to spend an additional five or 10 minutes in those story beats with those characters, I also realize that the sheer scope of how much was happening in this film was already enough, and extending certain of the sequences and arcs. I’m referring to actually would’ve taken the film a step too far into body horror, which is not what this is about.

I can’t say enough about the performances, and how much the live musical numbers seem to have contributed to maintaining the emotional residence of those scenes while also providing exceptionally strong connective tissue from start to finish that insured, we never lost sight or connection to those main characters. It allows a more intimate look and relationship between the audience and the characters, similar to what can be achieved in live stage performances, but can be difficult to capture on film in this type of production.

So many elaborate and dazzling costumes and production design, surrounded by visual effects and CGI characters, magic and fantasy sweeping us away, a popular and classic setting and story, all in an operatic production filled with bold music and dancing from one big musical number to another.

And yet, what do we remember? Which moments make our breath catch? It’s always those characters, their relationship, and their voices. None of the rest that swirls around them ever distracts from them. None of it, no matter how big it gets — and rest assured, it gets very big — sores higher than Erivo and Grande, the desperate need or hope or pain in their singing, and their love for one another.

Wicked: For Good will thrill fans and seems destined for greater box office success than the first film. Expect another round of Oscar nominations for the film as well, and probably some inevitable talk of spinoffs. After all, there are a lot of Oz books by L. Frank Baum, Broadway would probably love a new original musical sequel to Wicked, and no doubt Universal would love to keep this blockbuster beloved franchise going. And the fans? They’ll remain Wicked fans for good.