Are Prediction Markets the Next Big Crypto Meta?

The trading volume of prediction markets has surged over the past few months, surpassing that of meme coins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Meanwhile, leading market players are vying for position in this growing segment. This momentum raises a critical question: Are prediction markets the next major trend in crypto?

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Prediction Markets vs Meme Coins

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), an analyst noted that while NFTs and meme coins dominated trading activity in previous years, the market has undergone a significant shift. According to the post, prediction markets recorded a monthly trading volume of $7.5 billion in October.

By comparison, meme coins generated $2.7 billion in trading volume, while NFTs trailed behind at roughly $600 million. The divergence widened the following month.

Prediction market volume climbed to $9.5 billion. Meanwhile, meme coins and NFTs saw a drop, with $2.4 billion and $200 million in trading volume, respectively.

Another analyst added that on Solana, Polymarket’s trading volume is approaching that of Pump.fun, highlighting how quickly the segment is gaining traction.

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This performance reflects a growing divide in trader behavior. Meme coins, which once thrived on strong community narratives and speculative hype, are increasingly losing investor attention. Trader priorities appear to be shifting toward platforms offering clearer utility and outcome-driven participation.

Market commentator Mario Nawfal echoed this sentiment, arguing that capital is “flowing to outcomes, not jokes.”

Previously, John Wang, Head of Crypto at Kalshi, explained that meme coins are losing momentum due to their extractive structures, insider advantages, and unresolved concerns about fairness.

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While they remain powerful tools for permissionless asset creation and viral growth, Wang argued that prediction markets are more transparent and socially engaging.

Why Prediction Market Adoption Is Accelerating Now

It’s worth noting that prediction markets have been around for years. However, regulatory clarity and institutional participation have helped legitimize the sector, triggering a sharp increase in adoption.

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According to Dune data, prediction markets attracted 278,872 weekly active users in the past week. Weekly notional trading volume reached a record $3.82 billion, while weekly transaction counts also hit an all-time high of 12.67 million. These figures highlight sustained engagement.

Importantly, interest is no longer limited to retail traders. Large institutions are moving quickly into the space. Coinbase is reportedly planning to launch prediction markets.

Gemini’s affiliate, Gemini Titan, LLC, also received a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This approval allows Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to US customers. Trump Media & Technology Group has also outlined its plans to enter the prediction market business.

Yet, challenges exist. Prediction markets depend on reliable oracles to resolve outcomes. Any dispute over results can erode trust. Manipulation risks remain a concern, especially in low-liquidity or niche events. The months ahead will reveal whether prediction markets can continue to gain momentum.