Visayas grid supply-demand balance could hit ‘critical’ levels next year

THE Department of Energy (DoE) said the supply-demand balance situation on the Visayas grid could hit “critical” levels next year, resulting in a number of yellow alerts.

“There’s potential critical supply situation in the Visayas, based on the initial simulation of demand-supply,” Energy Undersecretary Mylene C. Capongcol told reporters.

She said the demand-supply situation for 2026 will ultimately depend on the extent of new capacity additions and measures to address the demand side.

The DoE estimates that committed power projects with the potential to generate around 6,000 megawatts are expected to come online next year.

Ms. Capongcol said the power outlook is not linked to an earthquake that struck the Visayas as repairs were carried out promptly.

So far this year, the Visayas grid has been placed under yellow alert eight times while Mindanao experienced one yellow alert.

In 2024, 16 red alerts and 62 yellow alerts were declared over the Philippines’ various power grids. Yellow alerts are declared when available supply falls below a specified safety margin, while red alerts are raised when demand actually exceeds supply, which will trigger power rationing, during which certain parts of the grid are left without power temporarily.   

Citing initial projections, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) is expecting the power supply in the Visayas to be vulnerable next year because it is dependent on the other two island grids.

“The Visayas is a net importer of power from Luzon and Mindanao, so when interconnection from Mindanao and Luzon are limited, power plants end up setting higher prices in the Visayas,” according to Isidro E. Cacho, Jr., IEMOP vice-president for trading operations. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera