Bitcoin’s (BTC) True Value Could Be 90% Higher, Says Analyst

Bitcoin’s (BTC) current market position is drawing mixed views. While some traders believe the asset is in a bear phase, others suggest the price does not reflect its true value.

Crypto analyst Sykodelic is among those who believe Bitcoin is trading far below where it should be. They claimed that recent market weakness is not driven by fundamentals but rather a short-term reset, with the larger trend still intact.

Market Conditions and Structural View

Sykodelic argues that Bitcoin’s pullback over the last two months should not be mistaken for a breakdown. 

The market observer believes the broader high-time-frame structure is holding up, and Bitcoin is simply lagging behind other assets that are already recovering.

The analyst links Bitcoin’s value to trends in gold and global liquidity. According to the analysis, this correlation places Bitcoin’s current price at nearly 90% below its fair value. They projected a short-term price target of $153,000 based on these macro indicators.

Sykodelic’s projection goes beyond near-term levels. They believe Bitcoin often overshoots its calculated fair value and could move toward $200,000 in the coming months. The analyst responded to skeptics by saying, 

Bitcoin’s price stands at around $89,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of $28 billion. It gained over 1% in the last day but has fallen slightly over the past week. After regaining the $88,000 level over the weekend, it briefly touched $90,000 before settling back.

Broader Market Context

As CryptoPotato reported, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the market will improve by 2026. He claims the standard four-year Bitcoin cycle is becoming irrelevant, citing long- term dynamics that might result in a more robust and more consistent market world. He predicts new all-time highs in the next year.

Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades referred to 2025 as “a very messy year” for Bitcoin, citing large inflows, accumulation by treasuries, and selling by long-term holders. He says Q1 2026 could be the point where Bitcoin proves whether the historical four-year cycle still applies.

Currently, BTC is testing the $90,000 range. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that a clean break above could bring a push toward $91,000 to $93,500. However, failure to hold this level might send the price back to $84,600.

Martinez also shared data from past cycles. Previous bear markets have followed a pattern: a top-to-bottom correction over 364 days. If this continues, a potential bottom could form in October 2026. Based on historical averages, this bottom could land near the $37,500 mark.

Another key level, $46,457, has been highlighted as a value where longer-term buyers typically step in, based on the CVDD model.

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