Anthony Pompliano: Here’s Why Bitcoin Won’t Crash In Q1

Bitcoin ends the year without a major rally as Anthony Pompliano says lower volatility reduces the risk of a Q1 crash.

Bitcoin seems ready to close the year without fireworks. Many traders expected a massive ‘Santa rally’ before the year’s end. 

However, that rally never came. 

According to Anthony Pompliano, that calm finish may reduce the chance of a hard crash in the first quarter of the new year. He argues that quieter price action could create a safer setup than past cycle peaks.

Bitcoin Volatility Tells a Different Story

The Bitcoin price disappointed many holders this December. Prices are now hovering near $87,000 and have failed to test earlier targets. 

This is notable because several high-profile predictions once pointed to $250,000 before the year’s end.

Pompliano believes that this outcome could happen from another angle and is focusing on volatility rather than price alone. 

This is because Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped over recent months, and large daily swings have now become rare.

The network’s lower volatility has historically indicated stability, as heavy crashes usually come after periods of extreme swings. 

That pattern failed to appear this cycle, which might be a good thing.

Pompliano addressed this point during a recent CNBC interview, where he said that a 70% to 80% drawdown looks unlikely under current conditions. He believes that the network’s compressed volatility reduces downside risk.

Bitcoin Performance Remains Strong Over Time

Short-term disappointment can hide longer trends, and Bitcoin still shows strong multi-year growth. 

The cryptocurrency’s price has doubled over the past two years, and its gains are approaching 300% across three years.

Those numbers matter because compounding over time defines long-term assets, and Pompliano reminded viewers of that context.

He described Bitcoin as a strong performer across financial markets. 

That view is directly opposite to the recent sentiment online, but long-term holders know that this is positive news.

No Blowoff Top, No Deep Crash

Past cycles often followed predictable patterns, where prices rose fast, euphoria peaked, and a collapse followed.

This cycle broke that rhythm as BTC reached new highs earlier but the follow-through never arrived. As of writing, prices have settled instead of exploding.

Pompliano sees that as a positive sign, as blowoff tops usually invite aggressive leverage. Liquidations then cascade during pullbacks.

Absence of that surge reduced leverage buildup and fewer forced liquidations could lower crash risk.

He noted that many traders expected extreme outcomes, but neither side materialised and the Bitcoin price neither soared nor collapsed.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $88K After Losing Key Support Level

Analysts Remain Split on 2026 Outlook

Not everyone shares Pompliano’s optimism and some analysts expect deeper pullbacks later.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that Bitcoin could drop to $60,000 by the third quarter of the coming year. Fidelity macro analyst Jurrien Timmer says that next year could even be a pause year with prices near $65,000.

Those views show uncertainty around global conditions.

Meanwhile, other analysts are striking a middle ground. Daan Crypto Trades described the recent market action as quiet and expects early 2026 to reveal whether the cycle still holds strength.

In all, Bitcoin seems to be ending 2025 quietly despite many expecting more drama. Pompliano believes that this calm reduces fear and the absence of extreme leverage lowers crash risk. 

Analysts are still debating where the price goes next, and opinions now range from consolidation to pullbacks.

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