By intensifying its large-scale crackdown on non-white immigrants and tightening entry restrictions on foreign nationals — especially from what Donald Trump has derided as “garbage countries” — the administration asks Americans to believe it is laying the groundwork for an economic renaissance. 

Consider Vice President JD Vance’s disingenuous attempt to pin the nation’s economic troubles on immigrants. “It’s simple economics,” he says. “If you have fewer people, fewer illegal aliens trying to buy homes, that means American citizens are finally going to be able to afford a home again.”

This is a pipe dream. Immigration has been the lifeblood of the United States for centuries, and choking it off now runs counter to the strategic — and growing — need of developed countries like the US to replenish aging and shrinking workforces. Harshly restricting the flow of immigrants is a poison pill that can only lead to severe economic damage.

Thin economic justifications merely mask Trump/MAGA’s persistent appeal to racist xenophobia, which is the true driver behind the escalating severity of immigration restrictions. For them, making America “great again” is premised on making it overwhelmingly white again.

So, Trump has ordered a travel ban on nationals from 20 African and Middle Eastern — predominantly non-white — countries and mandated intensified scrutiny of applicants’ social-media histories as part of eligibility checks for tourist and other non-immigrant visas. He halted the diversity visa (green card lottery) program, after a green-card holder shot and killed two Brown University students and an MIT professor.

From efforts to end birthright citizenship to plans to revoke the citizenship of thousands of naturalized Americans, the administration has layered new measures onto ongoing, often brutal, ICE raids that target people deemed “illegal” based on physical appearance. 

While the US Supreme Court allowed this practice, Justice Sonia Sotomayor in her dissent said, “We should not have to live in a country where the Government can seize anyone who looks Latino, speaks Spanish, and appears to work a low wage job. (Reinforcing Trump’s agenda, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio has introduced the Exclusive Citizenship Act of 2025, which would outlaw dual citizenship.)

The White House has also imposed steep new fees on non-immigrant visas: $100,000 annually for skilled workers on H-1B visas and an additional $250 for most non-immigrant applicants, including tourists, on top of the existing $185 application fee. 

Immediate and long-term drawbacks

The crackdown immediately constrains US access to highly skilled tech and other professionals, critically needed health care workers, and high-value tourist spending, while also disrupting labor supply in agriculture, construction, food processing, and other sectors. 

Like many advanced economies, the United States is facing a shrinking and aging workforce. With a fertility rate of 1.6 live births per woman — well below the replacement level of 2.1 — by 2030 roughly one in five Americans is expected to be 65 or older. This demographic shift means fewer workers supporting the economy and increased pressure on Social Security and other social safety nets. 

Despite this troubling forecast, Trump and his allies lament “childless cat ladies” and insist on returning women to “traditional roles” to boost native births. However, pro-natalist policies are costly and produce only delayed results. They have failed in countries like Japan and Germany despite tax incentives and child allowances, largely because of high costs of living and modern attitudes toward family and gender equality.

Nascent artificial intelligence is unlikely to resolve future labor shortages. While AI can increase productivity in sectors like manufacturing, logistics, and transportation, the majority of US workers — roughly 80% — are employed in service industries. 

Within these, about 23% of all workers occupy human-centric roles, such as health care, personal care, and social services, which require empathy and personal judgment. AI cannot fully replace these roles; productivity gains in other sectors will not be enough to offset labor shortages across the economy.

Ideological blindness

Immigration has so far shielded the US economy from the severe labor shortages that have afflicted countries like Japan and parts of Western Europe, where low birth rates and restrictive immigration policies exacerbate demographic decline. 

In 2024, foreign-born workers made up 19% of the US labor force, particularly in sectors facing critical shortages such as technology, agriculture, and health care. Over the past two decades, their influx has accounted for nearly half of U.S. labor force growth.

Yet ideology blinds Trump and his loyalists to the historical reality that immigration has helped offset population — and, by extension, labor force — decline in the United States. Their nativist, white nationalist agenda threatens not only the nation’s constitutional democracy, but also its economic well-being. Americans should ensure this agenda ends with his time in office. – Rappler.com

Rene Ciria Cruz is an editor at positivelyfilipino.com. He edited the book A Time to Rise: Collective Memoirs of the Union of Democratic Filipinos (KDP), (UP Press), and was Inquirer.net’s US Bureau Chief 2013-2023. He has written for the San Francisco Examiner, San Francisco Chronicle, Pacific News Service, and California Lawyer Magazine.