Trump Tariffs Face Supreme Court Test as Bitcoin Eyes $100,000

The US Supreme Court is expected to deliver a decision today at 16:00 CET on Trump tariffs, a ruling that could significantly influence financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. 

According to trader BitBull, market participants are pricing in a 75% probability that the court will rule the tariffs illegal.

Markets remain sensitive to tariff-related developments. After the introduction of the measures, global markets experienced sharp declines last April. Investors are now questioning whether lifting these tariffs could trigger a renewed rise in stock prices.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has shown moderate strength. On January 13, the leading cryptocurrency climbed to $96,474, representing a 19.6% increase from its November 21 low.

Bitcoin technical outlook shows mixed signals

From a technical standpoint, analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s next move.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades believes there is a high probability that Bitcoin will test the bull market support line in the near future. He notes that while this support line is moving downward, Bitcoin’s price is attempting to trend higher. 

BTC/USD 1-Week Chart. Source: Daan via X

In his view, the market is approaching a familiar testing phase, and whether the price breaks upward or pulls back could determine direction over the coming weeks or months.

Key resistance and support levels in focus

Trader CrypNuevo sees potential for Bitcoin to move toward the weekly 50 EMA, which could act as a resistance level. However, he suggests that a breakout above $100,000, roughly 4% above current prices, would invalidate this bearish scenario.

Source: CrypNuevo via X

A more cautious perspective comes from trader Roman, who characterizes Bitcoin’s weekly chart as classically bearish. He points to a pattern of rising trading volumes during price declines, followed by falling volumes during periods of rising or sideways price action. 

Roman believes that while Bitcoin may test the $100,000 area, this alone would not justify strong optimism. In his assessment, the next significant increase in trading volume could still push prices lower.

Long-term outlook remains constructive

Despite short-term uncertainty, several analysts continue to express optimism about Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects.

Crypto trader Michael van de Poppe remains positive on cryptocurrencies heading into 2025, observing that market sentiment has shifted sharply. He notes that widespread bullishness at the start of 2025 proved premature, while the current bearish consensus at the beginning of 2026 could once again be misleading.

Broader market perspective

Historically, decisions by the US Supreme Court have tended to have a limited direct impact on cryptocurrencies compared with policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve or Congress. Bitcoin has generally shown stronger reactions to interest rate changes and inflation data than to trade policy decisions.

Nevertheless, the psychological importance of the $100,000 price level remains significant. Round-number thresholds have often acted as consolidation zones across financial markets. 

While the removal of tariffs could theoretically ease inflationary pressure, strengthen the US dollar, and weigh on Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, market behavior does not always align with textbook expectations.