The number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 200K for the week ending January 17. The latest print came in short of initial estimates (212K) and was a tad higher than the previous week’s 199K (revised from 198K), according to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday.
Additionally, the 4-week moving average decreased by 3.750K, bringing it to 201.5K from the revised average of the previous week (205.25K).
The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims dropped by 26K to 1.849M for the week ending January 10.
Market reaction
The Greenback resumes its decline on Thursday, prompting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to challenge its critical 200-day SMA in the 98.70 region. The resurgence of selling interest in the buck remains unchanged in the wake of US data releases and despite the decent rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-rose-to-200k-last-week-202601221334
