Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan on bitcoin, ethereum, solana, central banks and more

Where bitcoin trades from here: Expect patience before the next leg higher.

• Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways between roughly $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year.
• “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, pointing to options-market positioning.
• A breakout is more likely later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are digested.

Why precious metals matter: Gold’s rally reinforces bitcoin’s long-term case.

• Hougan said the surge in gold reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risk.
• Silver, he added, looks like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
• Over time, he expects those dynamics to funnel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.

Central banks are circling, slowly: Interest is rising, but adoption is years away.

• Hougan said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks across multiple regions.
• Those institutions are still asking fundamental questions about bitcoin’s security and risks, not implementation details.
• He expects central banks to eventually own bitcoin — potentially more than gold — but said the timeline is likely 10 to 20 years.

The $6.5 million bitcoin call: A long-term bet on monetary reality.

• Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach roughly $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years.
• The core assumption, he said, is not accelerating adoption but the continuation of global debt growth, money printing and currency debasement.
• He argued bitcoin is a superior version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role.
• “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we get there. It’s just a matter of time.”

Zooming out: Volatility compression is key for institutions.

• Hougan said declining bitcoin volatility is critical for institutional adoption.
• He often tells allocators bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own.
• Bitwise expects volatility to keep falling while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.

Final take: Short-term chop, long-term conviction.

• Hougan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but isn’t required for crypto’s long-term trajectory.
• Even without clarity, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to keep expanding.
• “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”

Watch the full interview.