XRP Closes January Under Pressure Despite Whale Accumulation

• XRP closes January below key moving averages amid historical seasonal weakness.
• Whales are accumulating XRP, but rising exchange inflows signal potential downside risk.
• Price outlook hinges on $1.69 support and $1.97 resistance heading into February.

XRP is trading at $1.71 at press time, after another 1.6% decline over the past day as the month closes under sustained selling pressure. The token is now down nearly 10% over the past week and about 6.3% over the past month. XRP’s market capitalization stands slightly above $105 billion, supported by a 24-hour trading volume of about $3 billion.

Seasonal data adds context to the current pressure. Historically, XRP has struggled during the early months of the year. February, in particular, has recorded a median return of minus 8.12% and an average decline of about 5%. In February 2025, XRP fell nearly 29%, a level analysts are now watching as February approaches. 

Bearish Technical Structure Persists

XRP remains in a long-term downtrend that has held since October 2025. The price is still below its key moving averages on both daily and weekly charts, confirming bearish conditions.

Momentum indicators also point lower. MACD, ADX, and RSI remain bearish, while the weekly Ichimoku level near $2.07 is acting as strong resistance.

Support Levels and Downside Risks

Immediate support remains concentrated between $1.60 and $1.71. A sustained two-day close below this range would weaken channel support and increase the likelihood of a deeper decline. In that scenario, analysts identify $1.46 as the next major support level, with $1.24 emerging as a lower-probability target if broader market stress intensifies.

Whale Buying Grows, But Exchange Inflows Raise Caution

Despite weak price action, on-chain data points to steady accumulation by large holders. According to Santiment data, wallets holding more than 1 billion XRP increased their combined balances from about 23.35 billion to 23.49 billion XRP since early January, signaling capital deployment during price weakness.

Capital flow indicators support this view. The Chaikin Money Flow rose between January 5 and January 25 even as XRP’s price declined, suggesting net buying by larger participants.

Exchange flow data emphasizes caution. XRP’s exchange flow balance has shifted sharply since mid-January, rising from minus 7.64 million XRP to plus 3.78 million XRP. Similar inflow patterns earlier this month, however, preceded an 18% decline, increasing downside risk if the trend persists.

Network Activity

Earlier derivatives data show reduced speculative exposure. XRP open interest has climbed slightly to near $3.32 billion over the past day. However, over $14 million was liquidated yesterday after $70 million the previous day.

Price Probabilities Heading Into February

If XRP fails to hold the $1.69 support level, the probability of a decline toward $1.46 increases, particularly if Bitcoin weakness and macro risk-off sentiment persist. 

Conversely, a sustained two-day close above $1.97 would signal improving momentum and raise the probability of a move toward the $2.10 to $2.41 resistance zone. February’s direction is likely to depend on broader market conditions, ETF flow stability, and Bitcoin’s price action. 

Related: XRP at Key Support Faces Downtrend Risk as Technical Signals Diverge