Is Tesla (TSLA) Stock a Buy as Optimus Robot Production Nears?

TLDR

• Tesla stock was flat at $421.80 on Wednesday as investors awaited developments on the Optimus humanoid robot with production planned for 2026.
• An X poll showed Optimus winning as investors’ most anticipated Tesla product for the year, beating Cybercab and semi-truck options.
• Tesla is converting its Fremont Model S and Model X production space into an Optimus factory targeting one million units annually.
• The company will discontinue the Model S and Model X to make room for Optimus production lines at the California facility.
• Tesla stock trades at 259 times earnings with a $1.4 trillion market cap as the company transitions from electric vehicles to AI robotics.

Tesla stock held steady at $421.80 on Wednesday morning. The lack of movement came as investors digested recent developments around the company’s humanoid robot project.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

S&P 500 and Dow futures traded higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. No analyst rating changes or price target adjustments hit the stock during the session.

The most interesting development came from social media. A poll on X asked investors which Tesla product excited them most for the year ahead.

Optimus won by a landslide. The humanoid robot beat out the Cybercab, semi-truck, and stationary storage in voting. Over 16,000 votes were tallied by early Wednesday.

The poll reflects growing anticipation around Tesla’s robotics push. CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly called Optimus the company’s future.

A Factory Transformation Underway

Musk outlined specific plans during Tesla’s January 28 earnings call. The company will convert Model S and Model X production space at its Fremont, California factory.

That space will become an Optimus manufacturing facility. The long-term target is one million robot units per year from that location alone.

Production should begin in 2026. Musk said Tesla plans to unveil the third generation robot in “a few months.”

The decision to retire legacy vehicle models shows serious commitment. Model S and Model X currently represent a small portion of Tesla’s sales. But discontinuing them marks a clear pivot point for the company.

Tesla is moving resources from traditional electric vehicles to AI-powered products. This includes both Optimus and the Robotaxi ride-hailing service.

The Numbers Tell a Stretched Story

Tesla’s market cap sits at $1.4 trillion. The stock trades at $430 per share based on recent pricing.

The company finished its 2025 fiscal year with non-GAAP earnings of $1.66 per share. That puts the stock at 259 times earnings.

Analysts project earnings of $2.12 per share for 2026. They forecast $3.00 per share by 2027. Even using those future estimates, Tesla trades above 100 times earnings two years out.

Tesla stock has gained 10% over the past 12 months. But it dropped about 2% following the January earnings report.

The earnings call generated one downgrade from Battleroad Research analyst Ben Rose. He cited higher capital spending on AI projects as a concern.

Tesla plans to spend $20 billion on new plants and equipment in 2026. That’s up from less than $9 billion in 2025.

The average analyst price target rose by about $4 after earnings. That increase represents less than 1% movement.

Experts believe the humanoid robotics market could reach $5 trillion by 2050. Musk wants Tesla positioned as an early mover in that space.

Other companies are already training humanoid robots for factory work. Some industry watchers speculate Optimus could perform real-world applications later in 2026.

Tesla’s vehicle business has declined as the company shifts focus. Musk appears comfortable with this transition.

The stock reflects a loyal shareholder base willing to wait for long-term potential. Whether current prices leave room for near-term gains remains unclear.

Tesla plans to unveil the third generation Optimus robot in the coming months.

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