Crypto Winter? Tapping Into Crypto Weighs Gold Signals, US$40K Risk, and 2026 Turning Point

In the latest episode of Tapping Into Crypto, the hosts examine whether Bitcoin is already deep into a crypto winter or heading into a more severe phase. Drawing on historical market cycles, on-chain behaviour and broader macro conditions, the discussion outlines near-term downside risks alongside signals that could point to a longer-term shift in market dynamics.

Market Stress Extends Beyond Crypto

The episode opens by placing Bitcoin’s recent weakness in a wider market context. Sharp declines in gold and silver prices, alongside extreme volatility in leveraged exchange-traded products, are cited as signs of frothy positioning and forced liquidations across asset classes. The hosts note that these moves resemble crypto-style volatility, suggesting that risk appetite has deteriorated beyond digital assets alone.

Bear Market History Suggests More Pain

Bitcoin’s price action is compared with previous crypto bear markets, which historically lasted around 12 to 13 months and saw peak-to-trough declines exceeding 70%. With Bitcoin currently only several months removed from its most recent all-time high and down by a smaller percentage than in prior cycles, the discussion suggests that, based on historical precedent, further downside in US dollar terms remains possible.

Related: Analyst: Gold’s Surge Signals a Trust Crisis – and Crypto’s Moment

On-Chain Data Flags US$40,000 as a Risk Zone

The episode then turns to on-chain data tracking long-term Bitcoin holders. The hosts explain that when price approaches key cost-basis levels, selling pressure can increase as holders attempt to exit at break-even. If selling intensifies around the mid-US$70,000 (AU$100,480) range, they outline how this could open the path to a deeper drawdown, potentially bringing Bitcoin closer to US$40,000 (AU$57,000) as market sentiment weakens.

Gold–Bitcoin Relationship Points to a 2026 Shift

Despite the bearish signals, the discussion highlights a recurring historical pattern in which gold outperforms Bitcoin for roughly 14 months before relative strength shifts back toward crypto. Based on this framework, the hosts suggest February or March 2026 could mark a period of stabilisation in Bitcoin’s relative performance, even if it does not coincide with an immediate price bottom.

Tapping Into Crypto ultimately presents a market at a crossroads. While on-chain data and historical cycles point to caution in the months ahead, longer-term signals tied to gold performance leave open the possibility that the next major transition may already be forming beneath the surface.

Related: Treasury Secretary Bessent Questioned Over Trump-Linked Crypto Firm and Bitcoin Oversight

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