TON Technical Analysis Feb 9

TON is stuck in a narrow range at $1.38 ($1.33-$1.42) and while the short-term downtrend dominates, bull signals like the positive histogram on MACD make both scenarios possible. Traders should prepare for potential breakouts by monitoring key support and resistance levels.

Current Market Situation

TON is currently trading at $1.38 and stayed in the $1.33-$1.42 range with a 1.71% drop in the last 24 hours. Volume is at a moderate $52.97M, and the overall trend is downward. Technical indicators show RSI at 40.74 in the neutral zone, not giving an oversold signal; MACD shows a positive histogram implying bull momentum. However, since the price remains below EMA20 ($1.45), there is short-term bearish pressure and Supertrend gives a bearish signal, with $1.67 resistance in focus. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 15 strong levels were detected in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 3 support/3 resistance in 1D, 2S/1R in 3D, balanced 3S/3R in 1W increasing uncertainty. Key supports $1.3723 (71/100), $1.2664 (68/100), $1.1240 (65/100); resistances $1.3889 (79/100), $1.4590 (60/100), $1.5370 (79/100). This structure offers traders preparation opportunities in both directions.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break and close above the $1.3889 resistance (79/100) is first required; this could invalidate the short-term bearish Supertrend. If EMA20 ($1.45) is then surpassed, momentum increases, the MACD histogram expands, and RSI moves to the neutral bull zone above 50. With increased volume, $1.4590 and $1.5370 resistances are tested; confirmation of a bounce from strong supports in the 1W timeframe (around $1.2664) should be sought in MTF. Bitcoin holding the $69,949 support could trigger an altcoin rally. If the breakout lacks volume, there’s a fake breakout risk; invalidation is a drop below $1.3723.

Target Levels

First target $1.5370 (79/100), then $1.67 Supertrend resistance; with strong momentum, $2.0970 main target (46 score). Consider taking profits and trailing stops at these levels; R/R ratio from current levels calculates to about 1:3 potential for $1.38 entry. Watch: Volume increase and RSI 60+ confirmation.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below the $1.3723 support (71/100); this strengthens the persistent bearish structure below EMA20 and confirms the Supertrend sell signal. If RSI drops below 40 and the MACD histogram turns negative, momentum accelerates. With a volume spike, $1.2664 and $1.1240 are tested; MTF shows increased risk from 3D/1W support breaks. Bitcoin breaking $69,949 and heading to $65,843 creates chain reaction selling pressure in altcoins. For fake bottom risk, invalidation is a close above $1.3889.

Protection Levels

First protection $1.2664 (68/100), then $1.1240 (65/100); in extreme scenario, $0.6115 bearish target (22 score). Place stop-loss at these levels; R/R from current $1.38 offers about 1:2 risk. Watch: Low-volume crash and RSI below 30 oversold.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: Upward for $1.3889/1.45 breakout + volume increase/MACD expansion; downward for $1.3723 breakout + RSI decline. Confirmation signals include 4H closes, OBV volume divergence, and MTF alignment. Short-term volatility is high; with no news flow, technical breakouts will be decisive. Manage invalidation levels according to risk in every scenario.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $70,449 (-0.45%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish; if $69,949 doesn’t hold, altcoins including TON remain under pressure and BTC levels of $65,843/$60,000 give momentum below $1.2664 for TON. Conversely, if BTC bounces to $72,183 resistance, TON’s bullish scenario strengthens. Rising BTC dominance delays altcoin rotation; TON traders should prioritize monitoring BTC supports ($69,949), correlation around 0.85 high.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

TON around $1.38 is a critical threshold; wait for clear breakouts for both scenarios. Monitoring points: $1.3889R / $1.3723S, BTC $69,949S / $72,183R, RSI/MACD divergences, volume profile. Follow TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures pages for detailed data. Apply your own risk management, market dynamics can change.