$2.5B BTC, $410M ETH Options Set to Expire This Week

Nearly $3 billion worth of BTC options and ETH options are set to expire this week. Data from Greeks.live shows about 38K BTC contracts and 215K ETH contracts reaching settlement. The total notional value comes close to $2.9 billion. BTC options account for about $2.5 billion of that figure. ETH options add another $410 million. The expiry arrives as the market still shows weak confidence after recent price drops. 

Traders now watch how the settlement may affect short term price action. At the time of the report, Bitcoin traded near the mid $60K range. Ethereum hovered around the high $1,900 levels. Both prices sat well below their so-called “max pain” points.

Key Details Behind the Options Expiry

The Bitcoin side includes 38K contracts. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.71. That suggests slightly more call options than puts. The max pain level sits at $74K. Ethereum shows 215K contracts expiring. Its put-to-call ratio stands at 0.82. The max pain level for ETH is around $2,100.

Chart 1: BTC Option Open Interest by Expiration from @BTC__options

Chart 2: ETH Option Open Interest by Expiration from @BTC__options

Together, these expiries represent roughly 9% of the total options open interest. That makes this week’s settlement a notable event for the derivatives market. Max pain refers to the price at which most BTC options and ETH options expire worthless. In theory, the market sometimes drifts toward that level. This often benefits option sellers and market makers.

Volatility Drops but Confidence Stays Weak

Implied volatility has declined this week. Bitcoin main term volatility sits around 50%. Ethereum stands near 70%. Both figures are lower than recent panic levels. This drop suggests selling pressure has eased a bit. But traders still show caution. Market confidence remains low after the recent downturn. Put options still dominate some trading activity. That shows many traders expect lower prices ahead. Some bargain buying has appeared, but it remains limited. The broader market has also lacked fresh capital inflows. Without new money, strong rebounds become harder to sustain.

Max Pain Levels vs Current Prices

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum trade below their max pain points. Bitcoin’s max pain sits near $74K. Ethereum stands at around $2,100. In theory, this gap could create upward pressure. Hedging flows and dealer activity sometimes pull prices toward those levels. However, weak sentiment may limit such moves. Analysts say the market still looks fragile. The sharpest part of the decline may be over. Still, it is too early to call a full recovery.

What Traders Are Watching Next

Large option including BTC options and ETH options, are expiries often reset volatility. After settlement, hedges unwind and price moves can accelerate. This can lead to either a bounce or another drop. For now, traders will watch how the market reacts after the expiry. With sentiment still cautious, the next move may depend on fresh capital and broader market signals.

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