Crypto Market in Panic Mode Ahead of Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, SOL Options Expiry & US CPI Today

Crypto market participants bracing for high volatility and uncertainty to face two major headwinds today. Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 5 signals extreme fear ahead of Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, and SOL options expiry. The market sentiment is further rattled by the US CPI inflation data release later today.

Technical and on-chain data are flashing warning signs of a major crypto market crash amid selloffs by institutions and whales, ETF outflows, large declines in derivatives open interest, and macro pressure.

Crypto Market Braces for $2.5 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry

BTC price continues to hit $65K levels amid recent bearish market conditions. Tech selloffs, macroeconomic pressures, liquidations, and shifting Fed rate cut expectations are raising fears of further BTC price swings and a potential crash below $60K soon. Notably, Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to fall to around $50K, lowering the 2026-end outlook to $100,000.

Almost 38K BTC options with a notional value of $2.50 billion are set to expire on Deribit derivatives crypto exchange today. The put-call ratio of 0.71 indicates traders are positioning neutral amid heightened uncertainty.

Bitcoin max pain price is at $74,000, significantly above the current market price of $66,450. Derbit revealed that following a break below $70K triggered liquidations and extreme front-end put skew, positioning has shifted back toward calls. However, traders are betting for $66K to hold in the coming days, with put volume twice as high as call volume at the max pain price.

Glassnode claims BTC price will face sell pressure, predicting downside can extend as conviction fades. BTC implied volatility is falling as the crypto market options expiry approaches.

Bitcoin experiences one of its largest capitulation events in history, ranking among the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded and rivaling the 2021 crash, per CryptoQuant. This keeps the crypto market in panic as bearish pressure rises.

$400 Million in ETH Options Expiry

Over 210K ETH options with a notional value of $407 million set to expire today, according to Deribit data. The put-call ratio is 0.80, and the max pain price is $2,100.

Traders continue to hedge downside risks and hold prices around $1950, despite selloffs by whales and institutions. Put volume has increased ahead of expiry in the past 24 hours, with a put/call ratio of 0.90.

ETH implied volatility falls below 70% as puts increase amid downside protection by options traders. Also, the ETH 25 delta skew signal has increased in the last few days.

XRP and SOL Options Expiry

Over 3K XRP options worth $4.26 million to expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.92. The max pain price is at $1.50, but traders are betting for $1.30 and $1.40 strike prices.

Traders are watching the key levels as XRP price tumbled more than 2% to $1.35 over the past 24 hours. The crypto asset is facing selling pressure, with analysts predicting a potential drop despite positive Ripple-linked developments, including the US CFTC naming Ripple and Coinbase executives to an advisory panel.

Meanwhile, SOL options of a notional value of more than $8 million are expiring today, with a bearish put-call ratio of 1.14. The max pain price is at $92, with traders eyeing a rebound to $82.

SOL price is trading 2% down in the last 24 hours, with a 24-hour low and high of $76.67 and $82.11, respectively. Trading volume has plunged 8% over the last 24 hours, indicating a lack of interest amid uncertainty.

Crypto Market to Rebound If US CPI Inflation Cools

After the Nonfarm payrolls data show a resilient labor market in the United States, investors are closely monitoring the US CPI inflation data release later today. An upside surprise in inflation could erase hopes of Fed rate cuts, sending Bitcoin and the crypto market crashing.

Wall Street giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley expect CPI inflation to cool. The CPI is expected to show headline inflation easing to 2.5% from 2.7% and core inflation moderating to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Notably, Bitcoin realized price is at $55K, historically tied to bear market bottoms. Past cycles saw BTC trade 24-30% below this level before stabilizing. Currently, the price is still 18% above BTC realized price.